CRIC Research has released its monitoring report on the transaction structure and inventory destocking of commodity housing markets across 15 key cities for September 2026.
In September 2026, the housing markets of key cities, under the "Golden September" window, displayed characteristics of "concentrated supply release, month-on-month rebound in new home transactions, and a slight pullback in second-hand home transactions." New home supply surged substantially as developers concentrated on securing permits and launching projects, which drove a month-on-month recovery in new home transactions, though the year-on-year figure remained in decline. Second-hand home transactions edged down 1.13% month-on-month on a high base but still maintained positive year-on-year growth of 5.34%. The surge in new home supply, coupled with insufficient transaction follow-through, pushed inventory from a decline into growth and lengthened the destocking cycle in tandem, further intensifying overall destocking pressure. On balance, the September real estate market remains in an overlapping phase of "continued policy consolidation and ongoing market bottoming." The extent to which institutional benefits materialize depends on the pace at which supporting implementation rules are rolled out in the fourth quarter, while the阶段性 reversal in supply-demand dynamics suggests that market recovery will not happen overnight.
Overall Summary: Combined First- and Second-Hand Transaction Volume Turns Positive Month-on-Month, Second-Hand Share Falls to 67.85%
In September 2026, the total transaction volume of housing markets (new plus second-hand) across 14 key cities reached approximately 18.4125 million square meters, up 2.41% month-on-month and down 0.48% year-on-year, a relatively moderate decline. Of this, new commodity residential transactions totaled 5.9205 million square meters, up 10.76% month-on-month and down 10.87% year-on-year; second-hand residential transactions reached 12.4920 million square meters, down 1.13% month-on-month and up 5.34% year-on-year.
The month-on-month turnaround in total volume from decline to growth was primarily driven by the surge in new home supply boosting transactions; the continued negative year-on-year figure was mainly dragged down by a double-digit year-on-year decline in new home transactions, while second-hand homes maintained positive year-on-year growth but with a narrowing margin, failing to fully offset the decline. At the structural level, among first- and second-hand residential transactions across the 14 cities, the second-hand share fell to 67.85%, down 2.42 percentage points from August, while the new home share correspondingly rose to 32.15%. The September supply surge drove a阶段性 recovery in the new home transaction share, but the second-hand share remained close to 70%, with second-hand transaction volume approximately 2.1 times that of new homes, and the dominance of the existing-home market remains unchanged.
New Commodity Residential Market: Supply Surges 153.42% Month-on-Month, Year-on-Year Transaction Decline Widens to 10.22%
Overall Supply and Demand: Concentrated Supply Release, Month-on-Month Transaction Recovery, Supply-Demand Ratio Rises to 1.61
In September, new commodity residential supply across 15 cities saw concentrated release while transactions stabilized month-on-month, with supply-demand dynamics clearly shifting. Supply-side surge was the core variable in this month's new home market. The "Golden September" window combined with developers sprinting to meet third-quarter performance targets significantly accelerated the pace of securing permits and launching projects, with the supply side showing recovery signals first. According to CRIC monitoring, new supply of new commodity residential housing across 15 cities in the month reached 9.8235 million square meters, up 153.42% month-on-month, turning positive from August's -23.16% to 5.74% year-on-year, with single-month supply hitting a new high for the year; on a cumulative basis, supply across the 15 cities from January to September 2026 totaled 45.9945 million square meters, down 18.72% year-on-year. Although the full-year supply contraction trend has not reversed, the September single-month surge significantly filled the earlier gap.
The supply surge did not drive an obvious recovery in transactions. In September, new commodity residential transactions across 15 cities reached 6.1107 million square meters, up 10.77% month-on-month but still down 10.22% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 2.88 percentage points from August. This was partly affected by the elevated base from September 2025 (6.8065 million square meters) and partly reflects that demand-side recovery remains fragile, with the "Golden September" quality more evident in supply and month-on-month figures. Cumulatively, transactions across the 15 cities from January to September totaled 58.2419 million square meters, down 11.66% year-on-year, narrowing 0.16 percentage points from January-August, with marginal improvement in the cumulative decline but limited in magnitude.
On pricing, the average transaction price of new commodity residential housing across 15 cities in September was 29,493 yuan per square meter, down 0.34% month-on-month and up 3.74% year-on-year, with the year-on-year gain narrowing sharply by 6.87 percentage points from August. The rapid convergence of the year-on-year price gain was mainly dragged down by changes in transaction structure—the share of units below 90 square meters rose notably while the filing share of high-end projects in core cities like Shanghai declined, with structural factors dominating price fluctuations; the month-on-month decline for two consecutive months also indicates that "trading volume at the expense of price" continues, and signs of a comprehensive price recovery are not yet evident.
From the city dimension, the top-tier landscape for new commodity residential transaction scale across 15 cities in September remained relatively stable, but internal rankings shifted notably. Tianjin led with 604,600 square meters, followed closely by Chengdu (593,300 square meters), Guangzhou (590,800 square meters), and Chongqing (583,300 square meters), all four exceeding 580,000 square meters. Beijing recorded 540,000 square meters, up 47.18% month-on-month, the strongest performance among high-tier cities; Xi'an (496,300 square meters) rose 28.11% month-on-month, with most core central and western cities rebounding month-on-month.
Year-on-year performance divergence remained significant. Seven of the 15 cities achieved positive year-on-year growth: Beijing (+30.05%) and Tianjin (+23.30%) led gains, with Hefei (+16.04%), Suzhou (+13.11%), Nanjing (+7.28%), Guangzhou (+2.64%), and Xi'an (+2.34%) maintaining positive growth, showing relatively strong market recovery momentum. On the other hand, Changsha fell sharply by 57.55% year-on-year, facing the most prominent adjustment pressure, while Hangzhou (-32.56%) and Chengdu (-32.50%) also declined by over 30%, and Shanghai (-3.35%), Shenzhen (-5.27%), and Foshan (-9.00%) also edged lower. On a month-on-month basis, 12 of the 15 cities achieved positive growth, with the stabilization front expanding notably from August. Beijing led with a 47.18% gain, followed by Suzhou (+41.09%) and Xi'an (+28.11%), while Nanjing, Foshan, Tianjin, Changsha, Wuhan, and Hefei all recorded gains above 10%. Only Shanghai (-4.93%), Shenzhen (-6.79%), and Chongqing (-10.25%) saw month-on-month declines.
In terms of volume-price dynamics, Shanghai's average transaction price of 73,968 yuan per square meter, Shenzhen's 60,750 yuan per square meter, and Beijing's 57,554 yuan per square meter still constitute the first price tier. Among them, Beijing showed "volume up, price stable," with average price rising 2.47% month-on-month; Shanghai saw both year-on-year and month-on-month price declines, with a year-on-year drop of 14.67%, the largest among the 15 cities, notably dragged down by a reduced filing share of high-end projects. Chongqing's average price was only 8,767 yuan per square meter, down 2.66% month-on-month and 7.93% year-on-year, the lowest among the 15 cities, with "trading volume at the expense of price" characteristics continuing.
Transaction Structure: Share Below 90 Square Meters Rises to 21.63%, 90-130 Square Meter Main Segment Falls to 49.72%
In September, the transaction structure of new commodity residential housing across 15 cities showed marginal changes of "rigid demand recovery, mid-range improvement decline." According to CRIC monitoring, the share of units below 90 square meters in transaction volume rose to 21.63%, up 2.19 percentage points from August, a monthly high since the start of 2026; the 90-110 square meter share was 25.03%, down 2.27 percentage points; 110-130 square meters accounted for 24.69%, down 0.45 percentage points; 130-150 square meters accounted for 17.25%, up 1.04 percentage points; and above 150 square meters accounted for 11.40%, down 0.51 percentage points. The combined share of the 90-130 square meter main segment was 49.72%, down 2.72 percentage points from August's 52.44%.
From a longer cycle perspective, the combined share of the 90-130 square meter main area segment at 49.72% was essentially flat versus the same period last year (48.99%), with the area center remaining stable. By structure and year-on-year comparison, the share below 90 square meters rose 0.81 percentage points from a year earlier, 90-110 square meters rose 0.59 percentage points, and 110-130 square meters rose 0.14 percentage points, while 130-150 square meters fell 0.27 percentage points and above 150 square meters fell 1.26 percentage points. Notably, this month's share below 90 square meters hit a monthly high since the start of 2026, directly related to the concentrated entry of rigid-demand projects on the supply side. The coexistence of rising shares for rigid demand and first-time upgraders alongside a declining high-end share means the transaction center is rebalancing within the 90-130 square meter range, with total price constraints remaining the core variable determining unit type selection.
By city, transaction structure across area segments varied considerably, closely tied to city tier, housing price levels, and supply-demand structure. Among first-tier cities, Shenzhen's share below 90 square meters reached as high as 48.93% and Guangzhou's 45.47%, further reinforcing the dominance of small rigid-demand units under high housing prices, with Guangzhou's below-90-square-meter share surging 8.65 percentage points from August, reflecting a clear concentration of rigid-demand project filings during the month; Beijing's 90-110 square meter share rose to 34.60%, with a first-home and first-upgrade structure dominating; Shanghai still had 90-110 square meters as the absolute mainstay (39.46%), with above 150 square meters at 17.18%, maintaining a certain volume of high-end improvement and being the only one of the four cities with large-unit share approaching 20%.
Among second- and third-tier cities, Changsha's 110-130 square meter share was 40.07% and 130-150 square meters was 36.22%, with medium-to-large units combined exceeding 70%, further reinforcing large-unit preference under low housing prices; Suzhou's above 150 square meters share was 27.86%, still ranking at the top for high-end improvement; Xi'an's 130-150 square meters share was 29.83% and above 150 square meters 17.69%, continuing an improvement-dominated pattern. Notably, Tianjin's below-90-square-meter share surged from 18.53% in August to 33.27%, with the month's supply surge dominated by first-home products; Hangzhou's above-150-square-meter share fell 3.17 percentage points to 25.49%, related to the filing pace of high-end projects; Hefei's below-90-square-meter share rose to 11.47%, tilting the structure toward rigid demand.
Inventory Destocking: Inventory Turns to 3.00% Month-on-Month Growth, Destocking Cycle Rises to 23.3 Months
In September, total new commodity residential inventory across 15 cities turned from decline to growth, with the destocking cycle lengthening in tandem. According to CRIC monitoring, as of end-September, new commodity residential inventory across 15 cities stood at 154.6552 million square meters, up 3.00% month-on-month and down 1.95% year-on-year; affected by the concentrated supply surge, the destocking cycle was 23.3 months, 0.8 months longer than August (22.5 months) and 5.1 months longer than the same period last year (18.2 months). Inventory ended its four consecutive months of month-on-month decline from May to August, mainly due to the concentrated supply surge in September with new supply temporarily outpacing transactions, pushing destocking pressure up from the previous month.
The divergence in destocking across cities continued, with pressure broadening. Hangzhou (11.0 months), Chongqing (11.4 months), and Hefei (13.0 months) had destocking cycles below the 18-month warning line, in a relatively healthy range; Shanghai, Tianjin, Shenzhen, Xi'an, Changsha, Guangzhou, Nanjing, and Wuhan were in the 18-30 month destocking pressure range; Beijing (30.1 months), Suzhou (30.1 months), Foshan (32.6 months), and Chengdu (35.0 months) had destocking cycles exceeding 30 months, with inventory accumulation risk further spreading, among which Suzhou slipped from the pressure range into the severe range, and Chengdu's destocking cycle lengthened further from August (32.7 months).
Notably, Chengdu's September transaction area still ranked second among the 15 cities, but its destocking cycle reached 35.0 months, the highest among the 15 cities, with the "high transactions, high inventory" coexistence pattern showing no improvement, as Chengdu's supply in the month was 1.4017 million square meters with a supply-demand ratio of 2.36, further increasing supply backlog pressure. Foshan (32.6 months) faced weak demand support due to industrial population inflow falling short of expectations; Beijing (30.1 months) and Suzhou (30.1 months) both saw destocking cycles breach 30 months, with Suzhou's monthly supply surging 298.87% month-on-month and its supply-demand ratio rising to 2.67, making the marginal pressure of supply surge on destocking worth watching.
Project Performance: Beijing and Shanghai High-End Projects Lead Value Rankings, Beijing Takes 3 of Top 10 by Area
Looking at the top 10 projects by transaction area, the city distribution of leading projects became more concentrated than in August, with Beijing and Shanghai together occupying 5 spots. Beijing Urban Construction Longyue Jingxu led the area ranking with 51,000 square meters, at an average transaction price of 57,705 yuan per square meter; Chengdu Jinniu Guotou Guobin Shanglinting (49,200 square meters) and Tianjin Zhongjiao Fuli Tianxi (42,400 square meters) ranked second and third, with Zhongjiao Fuli Tianxi recording 1,205 units sold at an average price of only 5,270 yuan per square meter, a typical low-unit-price rigid-demand volume-driven project on the list. The top 10 by area totaled 342,900 square meters in transactions, 13.255 billion yuan in value, and an average unit size of 87.96 square meters, significantly lower than the value ranking, with rigid-demand and first-upgrade projects forming the mainstay of transaction scale.
The top 10 by transaction value showed a distinct "core city high-end improvement" characteristic, with Shanghai taking 5 spots and Beijing 4, the two cities together occupying 9 spots, and Chengdu taking 1. The top spot was Shanghai China Resources Yunqi Binjiang, with transaction value of 3.420 billion yuan and an average price of 144,903 yuan per square meter, the only project on the list with an average price exceeding 140,000 yuan per square meter; Beijing Urban Construction Longyue Jingxu (2.944 billion yuan) and Shanghai Greentown Yuehaitang (1.895 billion yuan) followed. Among the top 10 by value, 8 had average prices exceeding 50,000 yuan per square meter, and all except Chengdu Jinniu Guotou Guobin Shanglinting were located in the two first-tier cities of Shanghai and Beijing, with high-net-worth asset allocation demand continuing to support the independent performance of core city high-end markets; the operating entities were mainly state-owned and central enterprises and leading developers such as China Resources Land, Greentown China, and Beijing Urban Construction, with industry concentration continuing to rise.
The contrast between the area and value rankings remains striking: the area ranking was led by Beijing first-upgrade projects with dense distribution of low-price rigid-demand projects, while the value ranking was dominated by Beijing and Shanghai high-end projects, with the unit price difference between Zhongjiao Fuli Tianxi (5,270 yuan per square meter) and China Resources Yunqi Binjiang (144,903 yuan per square meter) exceeding 27 times. This comparison reflects the deeper characteristics of the current market of "overall stabilization, structural divergence": demand is concentrating at both ends of high cost-performance and certainty, with volume-driven cities relying on low-price projects to maintain scale and core cities relying on high-end projects to contribute value. Notably, six projects—China Resources Yunqi Binjiang, Beijing Urban Construction Longyue Jingxu, Greentown Yuehaitang, Yizhuang Guoxian Fu, Beiqing Runfu, and Jinniu Guotou Guobin Shanglinting—appeared on both lists simultaneously, with the "dual excellence in volume and price" characteristic of leading projects more concentrated than in August.
Existing Commodity Residential Market: Month-on-Month Transaction Decline Narrows to 1.13%, Year-on-Year Gain Narrows to 5.34%
Total Transaction Volume: Single-Month Transactions at 12.49 Million Square Meters, Slight Month-on-Month Pullback, Year-on-Year Positive Growth Maintained for Six Consecutive Months
In September, total second-hand residential transaction area across 14 key cities was 12.4920 million square meters, down 1.13% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing sharply by 7.82 percentage points from August; up 5.34% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive month of positive growth since April 2026, though the gain narrowed 0.89 percentage points from August. Cumulative transactions from January to September totaled 122.7101 million square meters, up 5.78% year-on-year, with growth essentially flat versus January-August, as second-hand momentum continued but slowed marginally.
In terms of volume trends, second-hand transactions peaked at 16.6397 million square meters in April before declining month by month, falling month-on-month for five consecutive months from May to September, but the September decline narrowed sharply to 1.13%, with high-level pullback momentum clearly weakening, and transactions remaining at a relatively high level above 12 million square meters. The coexistence of a slight month-on-month decline in second-hand homes and a month-on-month rebound in new homes (+10.77%) suggests some demand diverted to new homes amid the supply surge, but second-hand homes' positive year-on-year growth of 5.34% remains significantly better than new homes, and the overall pattern of "strong second-hand, weak new home" has not changed.
City Performance: Shanghai, Chengdu, Beijing, and Tianjin Lead in Scale; Suzhou and Wuhan Lead Year-on-Year
By city, in terms of transaction scale, Shanghai continued to lead with 1.7226 million square meters, followed by Chengdu with 1.4456 million square meters, while Beijing (1.3774 million square meters) and Tianjin (1.0047 million square meters) also maintained scales above 1 million square meters, forming four major highlands of "Shanghai, Chengdu, Beijing, and Tianjin." Wuhan (887,700 square meters), Xi'an (879,000 square meters), Chongqing (828,900 square meters), Guangzhou (770,300 square meters), and Nanjing (719,600 square meters) formed the second tier, while Changsha (542,100 square meters) and Shenzhen (432,200 square meters) ranked relatively lower in scale.
In terms of year-on-year performance, 10 of the 14 cities achieved positive growth. Suzhou led with a 28.87% year-on-year gain, followed by Wuhan (+25.68%), Changsha (+20.40%), and Foshan (+19.56%), while Nanjing (+12.64%), Shanghai (+12.52%), and Xi'an (+10.74%) all recorded gains above 10%; on the other hand, Chongqing (-11.24%), Chengdu (-9.69%), Shenzhen (-7.57%), and Beijing (-4.76%) saw year-on-year declines, among which Chengdu's cumulative January-September growth was 2.77%, a relatively stable cumulative performance, while Hangzhou's cumulative decline of 6.88% was the weakest among the 14 cities. On a month-on-month basis, 5 of the 14 cities achieved positive growth. Hangzhou led against the trend with a 17.15% month-on-month gain, the only city with an increase exceeding 15%; Beijing (+10.10%) and Wuhan (+10.09%) followed, with Xi'an (+3.43%) and Nanjing (+1.82%) edging up. The remaining 9 cities declined month-on-month, with Suzhou (-13.27%), Tianjin (-9.75%), and Changsha (-9.37%) leading the declines.
Outlook: Volatility May Emerge After Supply Surge, Transaction Stabilization Still Awaits Demand Recovery
Entering October, the "Golden September and Silver October" period enters its second half, and the supply-side pace may moderate after September's concentrated surge. New home transactions are expected to continue their month-on-month recovery with launch support; in the medium term, the total supply constraint remains, but the short-term concentrated surge has already pushed up destocking pressure on a阶段性 basis. After a slight pullback in September, second-hand homes may stabilize month-on-month, with high-level pullback momentum clearly weakening. Whether the market can continue its recovery in the fourth quarter still hinges on the resonance between demand-side confidence and policy implementation.
1. The supply side is expected to remain at a high level, but the full-year contraction tone will not change under "production determined by sales" constraints. September's 153.42% month-on-month supply surge was mainly driven by the "Golden September" launch window, with concentrated permit-securing evident in cities like Chengdu, Wuhan, Xi'an, and Guangzhou. Considering that developers' funding conditions remain tight and the "production determined by sales" strategy has not fundamentally shifted, whether fourth-quarter supply can sustain high levels still depends on the actual realization of October transactions; if transaction follow-through is insufficient, the supply pace will likely fall back again.
2. New home transactions are expected to continue their month-on-month recovery, but year-on-year may remain negative. September's new home transaction year-on-year decline widened to 10.22%, mainly affected by the supply surge failing to fully convert into transactions and the relatively high base from the same period last year. Considering that last October's transaction base (7.1664 million square meters) remains at a relatively high level, new home transactions in October 2026 are highly likely to continue negative year-on-year growth, with month-on-month recovery expected to continue, but the extent of recovery still depends on substantive improvement in demand-side confidence.
3. City divergence continues, with cities having destocking cycles exceeding 30 months under particularly prominent pressure. Beijing and Tianjin saw both year-on-year and month-on-month gains in September, with relatively strong recovery momentum; Hefei and Nanjing rebounded notably month-on-month. Meanwhile, Chengdu, Changsha, Chongqing, and other cities still saw deep year-on-year declines, with destocking pressure coexisting with demand overdraft; supply-surge cities like Chengdu and Suzhou saw destocking cycles rise above 30 months, and "trading volume at the expense of price" and inventory clearance may advance in tandem in the fourth quarter.
4. The second-hand home market's high-level pullback momentum has clearly weakened, with October expected to stabilize month-on-month. September's second-hand homes maintained positive year-on-year growth of 5.34% and the month-on-month decline narrowed sharply to 1.13%, with high-level pullback momentum clearly weakening; October second-hand transactions are expected to remain around 12 million square meters, stabilizing month-on-month, with year-on-year gains possibly widening on last year's low base.
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