Eli Lilly's newly launched oral weight-loss drug, Foundayo, demonstrated modest prescription numbers in its second week on the market. The performance failed to match the explosive debut seen with competitor Novo-Nordisk A/S's oral version of Wegovy, raising market concerns about the product's ability to catch up in the oral weight-loss drug segment.
According to IQVIA prescription data cited by RBC Capital Markets analysts, Foundayo recorded 3,707 prescriptions in the U.S. during the second week of April. Although this marked an increase from the 1,390 prescriptions in its launch week, it fell significantly short of the 18,410 prescriptions recorded for oral Wegovy in its second week.
The news led to a more than 5% drop in Eli Lilly's stock during early trading, with losses narrowing to around 4% by the close. In contrast, Novo-Nordisk A/S's shares rose approximately 6%.
The gap between market expectations and reality became apparent. Analysts had held high hopes for Foundayo's launch. Analysts at Deutsche Bank noted that second-week prescriptions would need to reach around 8,000 to indicate that the relative gap with oral Wegovy’s launch performance was at least being maintained. Truist analysts described the second-week figures as "modest," representing only about 20% of oral Wegovy's prescription volume during the same period.
J.P. Morgan analysts suggested that Foundayo's slower start was not surprising, given Wegovy's first-mover advantages in both time on the market and brand recognition. RBC analysts cautioned that early comparisons may be "less meaningful," but this week’s prescription numbers are still likely to be interpreted negatively by the market.
However, investors need not be overly pessimistic. Eli Lilly had previously warned that early weekly data may be incomplete, as it might not capture all pharmacy partners, and should be viewed as indicative of trends rather than a full count.
Foundayo offers practical advantages over Novo-Nordisk A/S's oral Wegovy, which must be taken on an empty stomach, with no food or drink for 30 minutes afterward. Foundayo does not require fasting or waiting, potentially lowering barriers to patient adherence. As a small-molecule drug, its chemical synthesis process is relatively simpler, resulting in fewer production bottlenecks and a lower risk of supply disruptions—a critical advantage in a market where GLP-1 drugs have frequently faced shortages.
Oral weight-loss medications are seen as the next major battleground in the obesity treatment market. Analysts note that while Eli Lilly has surpassed Novo-Nordisk A/S's Wegovy in the injectable segment with Zepbound, Novo-Nordisk A/S currently maintains a lead in the oral drug arena, backed by stronger product efficacy and first-mover presence.
Comments