According to Woofun AI, the crypto market experienced a sharp emotional reversal on November 4 following midterm election news, with Bitcoin surging 3.92% on heavy volume in a single day before quickly pulling back, while HYPE posted a weekly decline of 15.19%. Market focus has shifted to the "52-week moving average confirmation method," Elliott Wave Theory, and the "Shijie Ribbon" quantitative model for trend validation.
The core of judging Bitcoin's weekly trend lies in the three-principle verification of the "52-week moving average confirmation method." Since the weekly close on September 14, the price has successfully broken above and held the 52-week moving average for eight consecutive weeks, which essentially satisfies the "price breakout principle" in the quantitative rules. However, a breakout is only the first step; the subsequent pullback confirmation and moving average shape changes are more critical.
The price reached a stage high of $87,399 on September 21, then recorded a weekly closing stage high of $86,515 on October 4. Since then, the market has continuously pulled back from the high, undergoing a pullback confirmation process that has now lasted five weeks. The 52-week moving average currently sits at approximately $76,110, still pointing downward, while last week's closing price was around $74,900, closing near the 52-week moving average.
Based on this, the "price breakout principle" has been satisfied, indicating the market is in a transition phase from "bear market" to "bull market," but transition does not equal confirmation. As of last week's close, although the price has pulled back to near the 52-week moving average, the pullback confirmation signal has not yet been triggered, and the 52-week moving average remains in a declining phase, not yet entering the "flattening phase" required by the quantitative rules.
Therefore, the current rebound that started from the July 1 low of $57,820 should still be defined as an oversold bounce, insufficient to confirm a bull market. The key verification points ahead are: whether the price can find support near the 52-week moving average (currently around $76,110) and stabilize upward, and when the slope of the 52-week moving average will shift from declining to flattening or even turning upward — the latter being the ultimate key to bull market confirmation.
On the daily level, Bitcoin's price structure has been significantly disrupted by news events. On November 4, midterm election news triggered a 3.92% surge on heavy volume with a 7.1% amplitude, pushing the price above $80,000 that day. Just one day later, a sharp selloff in US stocks dragged the price down 5.48% on heavy volume with an amplitude of about 7.01%, with an intraday low of approximately $75,222 — the lowest since the September 21 correction — and the VIX fear index briefly approaching 25.
Although news-driven turbulence pushed the price below the $75,000 support, last week's close remained near $75,000, indicating strong buying absorption at that level and validating the previous weekly review's prediction that "the daily Wave ⅰ correction ending near $75,000 is also a high-probability event."
From a structural perspective, the price continues to move along its original descending channel, with the lower boundary formed by connecting the September 24 and October 8 lows, and the upper boundary drawn as a parallel line from the October 5 high. After last week's severe volatility, the price remains within the channel, with no deviation from the short-term trend. However, the price has broken below the intersection point (around $77,200) formed by two important moving averages (white line and red line), though it is still running along the red moving average, not yet having completed its "detachment" from that moving average's "binding force."
Based on the previous five-wave advance, the three Fibonacci retracement levels for this correction are: $76,130 (0.382), $72,610 (0.5), and $69,120 (0.618). The price has not yet effectively broken below $76,130, and the second support level below ($72,610) is stronger. As long as no new external negative news emerges this week, the price is expected to digest the November 5 selling pressure through consolidation and gradually enter a bottoming phase. This correction has lasted 48 trading days, with time and space dimensions largely in place. The Wave ⅰ correction from the September 21 starting point of $87,399 has seen a maximum range decline of 15.9%. The Wave ⅱ bounce may be late, but it will not be absent.
Woofun AI's compiled data shows that the "Shijie Ribbon" quantitative model, backtesting nearly nine years of historical data, determines based on probability statistics: when the price effectively stands above the ribbon and the ribbon turns yellow, it is judged as a bull market, with the strategy favoring buying on dips; when the ribbon turns gray, it is judged as a bear market, with the strategy favoring selling on rallies. Current signals show that Bitcoin's bullish structure is still continuing.
In this week's market outlook, the core view is to focus on the battle between bulls and bears over the "Shijie Ribbon." The core resistance levels are divided into three zones: the first resistance zone at $76,500–$78,500 (previous important level), the second resistance zone near $82,000 (previous important level), and the third resistance zone at $85,000–$87,500 (previous important level). The core support levels are also divided into two zones: the first support at $72,500–$73,500 (previous important support), and the second support at $69,100–$70,000 (previous important support).
For the medium-term strategy, following last week's price action, the price has broken below the "position monitoring channel" but has not yet completed an effective retest confirmation. Before the signal is confirmed, it is advisable to stay in cash and observe, without making directional commitments. For short-term strategy, use 30% of position size, set stop-losses, and look for "spread" opportunities based on support and resistance levels, using 30-minute/60-minute timeframes as the operating cycle.
Specifically, in short-term operations, combined with the current price structure analysis, this week's strategy focuses on "buying on dips." If the price adjusts to the $72,500–$73,500 zone and shows a clear stabilization pattern, with the quantitative model simultaneously issuing a bottom signal, a light long position can be established with position size controlled within 30%, and an initial stop-loss set. When the price rebounds to near important resistance levels and combines with model signals, positions can be closed in batches to take profits.
HYPE's daily structure has also been affected by external shocks. Last week, due to the spillover impact of a systemic US stock selloff, HYPE posted a weekly candle with a decline of 15.19%, closing near $74.5 (around the $75 mark). Its body completely covered the previous week's 15.16% gain candle, forming a typical "bearish engulfing" pattern. It should be noted that the driver of this decline was external rather than a deterioration in HYPE's own fundamentals, which provides a basis for judging the "effectiveness of support levels" going forward. If support holds, it would be a recovery after an unjustified selloff; if support fails, the quality of the original trend needs to be reassessed.
HYPE's triple support system includes the Shijie Ribbon, the lower boundary of the box range, and the long-term uptrend line. Since HYPE's price successfully stood above the Shijie Ribbon on March 14, the ribbon has remained yellow for nearly 240 trading days, indicating the market has been in a bull phase long-term, with the overall direction intact. The ribbon's upper boundary is currently around $74.05, and the lower boundary is around $71, with the overall slope still pointing upward. The price has now pulled back to near the ribbon's upper boundary. If it stabilizes here, the bullish trend continues; if it effectively breaks below and the ribbon turns gray, the market may undergo a bull-bear shift.
Additionally, after the price broke above the previous high of $76 on heavy volume on August 21, it entered a wide box consolidation with an upper boundary around $98 and a lower boundary around $75. Notably, on October 24, the price retested the lower boundary of the box and triggered a 20% rally, proving that the lower boundary has strong buying absorption. Finally, since the uptrend began from the January 21 low of $20.14, HYPE has been running along a long-term uptrend line formed by connecting the starting point with multiple important stage lows. This line is the "bottom line" of the bullish trend, currently located around $68.
HYPE's market outlook and trading strategy for this week closely revolve around these three support lines. The core resistance levels are divided into three zones: the first resistance at $82.5–$85, the second resistance at $88–$89, and the third resistance at $95–$98. The core support levels are also divided into three tiers: the first support at $74–$75 (ribbon upper boundary + box lower boundary), the second support near $71 (ribbon lower boundary), and the third support near $68 (long-term trend line).
This week's core view is to focus on whether the price can stabilize near support levels. The short-term trading strategy is divided into two scenarios: First, if the price stabilizes and continues to rise in the $74–$75 zone, those without positions may consider a light long attempt with position size controlled within 30%, while setting a stop-loss and strictly executing it. Second, if the price continues to adjust to the $68–$71 zone and forms a stabilization pattern, those without positions may consider a light long attempt with position size controlled within 30%, setting a stop-loss and strictly executing it. Both scenarios emphasize the principle of light position entry after stabilization at key support levels, along with strict position control and stop-loss discipline.
Regarding general risk control discipline, the dynamic stop-loss trailing rule is key to protecting capital and locking in profits. When opening a position, an initial stop-loss must be set immediately. When profit reaches 1%, move the stop-loss to the entry cost price (break-even point) to ensure capital safety. When profit reaches 2%, move the stop-loss to the 1% profit level. Thereafter, for every additional 1% gain, the stop-loss moves up by 1% in tandem, locking in profits through dynamic protection. This rule applies to all trading instruments, aiming to reduce emotional interference and ensure trading discipline through mechanical stop-loss adjustments.
Financial markets are constantly changing, and all market analysis and trading strategies require dynamic adjustment. Markets carry risk, and investment requires caution. Do not make decisions based solely on this information. Investors should combine their own risk tolerance and make independent judgments and investment decisions.
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