Guoyuan International released a research report stating that following the full island closure of Hainan, the cultural and tourism market has exhibited an explosive growth trend characterized by "an explosion in duty-free consumption + a surge in inbound passenger traffic + an upgrade in tourism transportation." This directly benefits three categories of stock targets: leading offshore duty-free operators, tourism transportation hubs, and local Hainan cultural tourism operators. The report recommends focusing on China Tourism Group Duty Free (01880) and Meilan Airport (00357). Guoyuan International's main views are as follows:
Data from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism shows that during the New Year's Day holiday, there were 142 million domestic tourist trips nationwide, with total spending reaching 84.789 billion yuan. National-level nighttime cultural and tourism consumption clusters recorded a cumulative nighttime passenger flow of 42.7182 million人次. Short-distance travel became mainstream, with urban local leisure, short-haul tourism, and nearby travel seeing high popularity.
Notably, during the New Year's Day period, Hainan province received 2.1716 million tourist visits, a year-on-year increase of 25.2% compared to 2025; total tourism spending reached 3.136 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.9%. As Hainan's international flight network continues to be densified, covering multiple key regions in Asia and Europe, and coupled with multi-platform foreign-oriented marketing promotions, the inbound tourism market achieved "explosive growth" during the New Year period.
Data from January 1 shows that Sanya's inbound flight ticket orders surged by 5 times year-on-year, while Haikou saw an increase of nearly 3 times, ranking first and second nationally in growth rate. Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea, Vietnam, and Australia became the primary sources of inbound tourists. The continuous influx of international visitors has enriched the structure of Hainan's tourist source markets.
Simultaneously, driven by expectations surrounding the Hainan Free Trade Port island closure policy, "shopping + vacation" has become the dominant model. Hotel occupancy rates around the China Tourism Group Duty Free City increased by approximately 1.5 times year-on-year. During the New Year's Day holiday, Hainan's tourism reception venues were bustling with activity.
The average occupancy rate for commercially operated accommodation units across the province reached 79.01%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points year-on-year. Grade-A tourist attractions received 1.4216 million visitors, a year-on-year increase of 35.5%. Coconut-grade rural tourism sites received 361,800 visitors, a significant year-on-year increase of 66.3%.
The dividends of the island closure policy continue to be released, with tourism plus duty-free shopping creating a growth engine. The 2026 New Year's Day holiday, being the first short holiday after the full island closure of the Hainan Free Trade Port, saw the tourism market get off to a "flying start." The province received 2.1716 million tourist visits, a year-on-year increase of 25.2% on a comparable basis.
Total tourism revenue reached 3.136 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.9%. The growth rate of revenue was 3.7 percentage points higher than the growth rate of visitor numbers, indicating a continuous optimization of the consumption structure. Areas such as offshore duty-free and inbound tourism performed exceptionally well.
The bank believes that the dividends of the closure policy and diversified product supply will jointly propel Hainan's tourism market into a new stage of high-quality development. After the full island closure of the Hainan Free Trade Port, the offshore duty-free policy has undergone multiple optimizations. The range of product categories has expanded from over 1,900 items to 6,637 items.
Coupled with discount activities during the New Year holiday, this has fueled intense consumer enthusiasm. Data shows that offshore duty-free sales during the New Year holiday reached 712 million yuan, a sharp year-on-year increase of 128.9%. Sales on the first day alone were 251 million yuan, up 93.8% year-on-year.
The number of shoppers reached 83,500, a year-on-year increase of 60.6%, and the average spending per customer rose to 8,527 yuan. This reflects that policy optimization and promotional activities have effectively stimulated consumption potential. Meanwhile, Hainan's international flight network has continued to expand post-closure.
Inbound flight ticket orders for Sanya and Haikou increased by 5 times and 3 times year-on-year respectively, ranking them first and second nationally. By 5:00 PM on January 3, Hainan had processed over 28,000 inbound and outbound passengers, representing a 23.5% increase in passenger flow compared to the same period last year.
Among these, Haikou Meilan International Airport processed over 16,000 inbound and outbound passengers, a year-on-year increase of 41.8%. Sanya Phoenix International Airport processed over 11,000 inbound and outbound passengers, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%. Tourists from Southeast Asia (e.g., Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea) and Australia-New Zealand became the main source markets.
This high growth in inbound tourism has not only broadened the tourist source structure but also driven growth in supporting consumption, such as high-end hotels and catering. For instance, hotel occupancy around the Sanya International Duty-Free Shopping Complex increased by 1.5 times year-on-year during the New Year period.
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