On April 30, the gold market continued to face downward pressure, with spot gold settling near $4,567 per ounce, its lowest level since April. GTC Zehui noted that rising oil prices and restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have heightened global inflation expectations, but the high-interest-rate environment continues to limit gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. West Texas Intermediate crude oil surpassed $100 per barrel, while Brent crude remained near $111, dampening short-term demand for gold.
In terms of central bank policies, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate within the target range of 3.50% to 3.75%, with significant disagreement among committee members. GTC Zehui pointed out that some officials favor tightening, temporarily cooling market expectations for rate cuts. Fed Chair Powell emphasized cautious policy and congratulated incoming Chair Kevin Warsh on a smooth transition, indicating that monetary policy will remain steady in the near term. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.35% to 98.95, while the 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.4%, creating direct resistance for dollar-denominated gold and increasing the opportunity cost of holding it.
Technically, gold briefly dipped to $4,557, but key support levels remain intact. Despite the recent decline, medium- to long-term structural bullish sentiment still dominates the market. Continued gold purchases by institutional investors and central banks provide stable support for the metal. Short-term selling pressure stems more from interest rate and dollar fluctuations than from deteriorating fundamentals. Investors should monitor critical technical levels, including the $4,300–$4,400 range and defensive lines near the 200-day exponential moving average.
Global energy and inflation trends remain key variables influencing gold's performance. GTC Zehui analyzed that if bottlenecks in the Strait of Hormuz ease or oil prices retreat, gold may find short-term rebound opportunities. Conversely, persistently high energy prices will continue to weigh on the metal. Market participants should pay close attention to the Fed’s interest rate policies, global energy supply conditions, and geopolitical developments to assess gold’s safe-haven value and short-term volatility risks.
Overall, while gold faces near-term pressure, long-term structural factors remain solid. GTC Zehui believes that central bank diversification, relative dollar depreciation, and long-term inflation expectations continue to support gold. Amid current market volatility, investors should adopt rational entry strategies and set stop-loss plans while monitoring macroeconomic and energy market trends to capture medium- to long-term allocation opportunities.
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