The 20th-anniversary edition of the annual "In Gold We Trust" (IGWT) report, titled "Back to the Monetary Future," from Austrian asset manager Incrementum AG argues that gold is fulfilling its core function as a monetary asset for the global economy. This follows a period of unprecedented early-year gains, subsequent volatility, and current consolidation.
The report's lead authors, Ronald-Peter Stöferle and Mark Valek, state that gold's historic rally is not a speculative anomaly but part of a broader "re-monetization" trend. This trend is driven by geopolitical fragmentation, de-dollarization, inflationary volatility, and declining confidence in the fiat currency system established after the 1971 decoupling of the US dollar from gold. They note that this system now shows "unmistakable signs of fatigue," with gold re-emerging as an increasingly crucial monetary anchor.
Gold reached a record high of $5,595 per ounce in January 2026, following a 64.4% gain in 2025, its strongest annual performance since 1979. The report highlights the evolution of both the gold market and the IGWT publication itself over two decades, from a 20-page document when gold was around $670 to a 400+ page report with gold up over 600%.
Despite the significant advance, the authors believe the long-term structural bull market is far from over. They state that the "Golden Decade" projected in their 2020 report is now fully underway, with the dollar-denominated gold price up 165% since then. They identify the current phase as the "public participation stage," typically the longest and most dynamic phase of a bull market.
Given strong long-term fundamentals, Incrementum has raised its long-term price target. The 2030 target of $4,800 set in the 2020 report was already reached in 2026. The firm now focuses on an alternative inflationary scenario target of $8,900 per ounce by the end of this decade. The report adds that if the re-monetization trend accelerates further, prices could reach "levels significantly above current ones."
This optimism stems from gold's evolving role from a mere commodity or safe-haven trade to a "neutral reserve asset" within a rapidly changing global monetary system. The report suggests the "Pax Americana" order established in 1945 is ending, including its monetary dominance.
A key signal of this shift is surging central bank demand, with purchases of 863 tonnes in 2025 following three consecutive years of over 1,000 tonnes. The report also highlights growing discussion about a formal revaluation of US gold reserves, which are still carried on the Treasury's books at $42.22 per ounce versus a market price near $4,600. This revaluation is described as a political possibility gaining tangible ground.
Incrementum contends gold remains severely under-allocated within the global financial system, with privately held gold estimated at just 2.7% of global financial assets, indicating limited institutional participation so far. They describe the market not as an overcrowded trade but as a party where "people are just starting to arrive."
The next phase is expected to see demand shift from central banks to investors. The report warns that expanding sovereign debt remains a key long-term driver, with global debt hitting a record $348 trillion by end-2025 and US debt surpassing $39 trillion earlier this year. In this environment, government bonds' traditional role as "risk-free" assets is deteriorating due to deeply negative real yields, forcing investors to seek alternative stores of value.
While the long-term trend is seen as solid, Incrementum cautions that the path higher will likely remain volatile. They expect gold to undergo a period of high-volatility consolidation between $4,500 and $4,950 until early summer. Following this year's earlier significant correction, the report warns that higher bond yields, liquidity pressures, and broad market volatility could still cause short-term pullbacks. However, the authors emphasize they would view any such corrections as buying opportunities.
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