For years, the primary avenue for ordinary investors to participate in Elon Musk's vision has been through purchasing shares of Tesla Motors. However, this dynamic is set to change, presenting a significant risk to Tesla investors.
As Space Exploration Technologies Corp., or SpaceX, initiates its IPO process, the market will offer a new entry point for investors into the "Musk economy." Wall Street professionals believe that investor attention and capital will inevitably shift from Tesla toward this newly public company.
Joe Gilbert, a portfolio manager at Integrity Asset Management, stated, "This is certainly not positive for Tesla. We anticipate Musk's focus will increasingly tilt toward SpaceX. While he has historically managed multiple ventures simultaneously, SpaceX appears to be his passion project, potentially marginalizing Tesla."
From various perspectives, Tesla appears to be in a state of stagnation or even slight decline, with slowing sales growth and underlying business pressures. Yet, its stock price has long been driven not by financial performance but as a vehicle for betting on Musk's broader vision. The stock surged 265% between 2023 and 2025 but has declined 8.8% year-to-date, still trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 196 times.
In contrast, SpaceX operates in a completely different domain, holding a dominant position in the aerospace sector with substantial growth potential.
James Picariello, an analyst at BNP Paribas who rates Tesla as "underperform," estimates that retail investors hold roughly 40% of Tesla's shares. In a recent client note, he wrote that a SpaceX listing would "split" the retail investor base supporting Musk, putting downward pressure on Tesla's stock price.
However, Ivan Feinseth, Chief Investment Officer at Tigress Financial Partners, suggested that SpaceX's IPO could also strengthen the broader narrative of the Musk ecosystem. His firm holds Tesla shares in accounts managed for clients.
Comments