According to the Zhitong Finance App, Sinolink Securities Co., Ltd. has released a research report stating that from a global investment perspective, holding a combination of U.S. AI tech stocks plus gold may serve as a hedge portfolio. However, for domestic investors, A-share tech stocks do not hold an advantage during the tech scope-narrowing process. At this juncture, the energy sector, which has lower sensitivity to interest rates and carries dividend attributes, becomes a better substitute. Gold is the dominant asset for the next scenario, while what can be sought in the present is the energy chain where demand has relatively low sensitivity to interest rates and the supply side has undergone significant changes.
Based on this, the firm recommends focusing on the following. First, the energy and chemicals chain represented by oil, oil shipping, and coal will continue to benefit from global restocking demand for energy, while also possessing dividend attributes. Second, against the backdrop of a slowing AI industry trend and diverging fundamentals, combined with a significant pullback in rate hike expectations for October, the suppression from real interest rates is gradually easing, and gold is ushering in an allocation opportunity.
The main viewpoints of Sinolink Securities Co., Ltd. are as follows.
The Divergence Behind Chinese and U.S. Tech Stocks: Valuation Convergence Under Fundamental Expectation Suppression
Recently, a clear divergence has emerged in the performance of Chinese and U.S. tech stocks. The direct trigger behind this is the potential sanctions risk represented by the U.S. FCC, which has led to concerns about future fundamentals, thereby suppressing valuations, while also being exacerbated by the still-crowded domestic trading structure. At present, after significant adjustments in A-share tech stocks, stock prices and valuations have somewhat reflected investors' concerns about the future fundamentals of A-share tech stocks, but it is hard to say this has been fully priced in. A-share tech stock valuations are still not cheap enough, and are even still higher than U.S. stocks.
First, from the perspective of their own valuation levels, the PE TTM valuation percentiles of growth sectors represented by optical modules, PCB, and computing power chips remain above 60%, while PB valuation percentiles are even higher, still above 85%. Although dynamic valuations may be reasonable and ROE levels have already improved at present, this also means higher requirements are being placed on future fundamental assumptions, and the basis for these assumptions is facing various uncertainties. Second, compared with U.S. stocks, current A-share tech stock valuations remain higher than U.S. stocks, with PB slightly higher and PE far higher. From a sub-sector perspective, the PB valuations of A-share optical modules and PCB remain far above U.S. stocks, while the PE valuation of A-share AI chips is far above U.S. stocks. Chinese tech stocks' past extreme relative scarcity within the A-share market was the driving force behind their past excess returns and faster valuation gains. However, during the global tech scope-narrowing period, this has also become a latent concern for future performance from a global horizontal comparison perspective.
Two Possible Directions for the Future U.S. AI Investment Cycle
After hitting new highs, U.S. stocks are now beginning to face their own problems. Earnings have started to diverge due to differences in calculation methods, represented by OpenAI's revenue figures of USD 50 billion versus USD 70 billion. Although optimists and pessimists each hold their own views, what is clear is that the future trajectory of U.S. AI tech stocks also carries significant uncertainty. The firm discusses this by scenario.
First, if the fundamentals of U.S. tech stocks are confirmed to be problem-free, stock prices will return to strength. For A-shares, the firm believes there may also be a recovery after the sharp decline, but the magnitude will not be too large and will likely be weaker than U.S. stocks. The reasons are as follows. On one hand, the fundamental mapping relationship between Chinese and U.S. tech stocks has already weakened. The core reason is that U.S. tech stocks have shifted from siphoning global investment capital to redistributing profits after focusing on future returns, allowing profits from the global AI industrial chain to flow back to the U.S. to support more distant investment needs. This is an inevitable choice in a scenario where overseas profit retention is scarce. Therefore, although the FCC has not yet taken action, as long as it has not been finalized, it will continue to suppress fundamental expectations for Chinese sectors that切入 the U.S. industrial chain, represented by optical modules. On the other hand, trading-level issues have still not been fully digested. On Friday of this week, October 9, 2026, A-share tech stocks showed a clear rebound after the sharp decline, mainly due to ETFs and market stabilization funds entering to support the market, because the margin maintenance ratio has returned to near previous lows, increasing the necessity for market stabilization. Even so, the concentration of mutual fund positions combined with contrarian operations is the biggest constraint on the rebound. Since the end of July, during the weak rebound in tech stocks, mutual funds have shown clear contrarian operations in the electronics and communications sectors that were heavily positioned in Q2, namely reducing positions during rebounds and slightly adding during declines.
Second, if the fundamentals of U.S. tech stocks also run into problems, then under a downtrend in U.S. tech stocks, A-share tech stocks may find it even harder to remain unaffected. In this case, the siphon effect of U.S. AI on global capital will decline, upward pressure on real interest rates will ease, and combined with a significant pullback in October rate hike expectations, pressure from rising nominal rates will also ease. At that point, the allocation opportunity for gold may instead arrive. Therefore, from a global investment perspective, holding a combination of U.S. AI tech stocks plus gold may be a hedge portfolio. However, for domestic investors, A-share tech stocks do not hold an advantage during the tech scope-narrowing process. At this juncture, the energy sector, which has lower sensitivity to interest rates and carries dividend attributes, becomes a better substitute.
Domestic Demand: A Potential Hedging Option with Positive Short-Term Changes but Simultaneous Concerns
Against the backdrop of high overseas interest rates and China-U.S. tech divergence, in addition to energy plus gold, domestic demand is also a potential hedging area for investors who do not want to leave or cannot leave the market. On one hand, after several years of continuous adjustment, the dividend yield of the consumer sector has become quite considerable, with some sub-sectors even surpassing banks. On the other hand, policy has recently been actively stepping up. On Friday of this week, the Ministry of Finance set the tone to intensify counter-cyclical adjustments and step up efforts to expand domestic demand, and it is expected that infrastructure physical work volume will accelerate in the fourth quarter, providing some support for domestic demand. However, domestic demand currently also faces some concerns. September PMI data showed strong supply and weak demand, and the real weakening may not have ended, which constrains the sustainability of stock price performance.
Allocation Approach Under a Comprehensive Defensive Mindset
Since the firm proposed active defense, the market has clearly cooled. Since the firm proposed comprehensive defense, market temperature has further declined. The difference between active defense and comprehensive defense lies in this: the former recognizes market risks but is still seeking assets with excess returns, while the latter focuses on asset allocation aimed at preventing downside risks. For overseas investors, holding U.S. tech plus gold can still achieve effective hedging, but this does not hold for domestic investors. Gold is the dominant asset for the next scenario, while what can be sought in the present is the energy chain where demand has relatively low sensitivity to interest rates and the supply side has undergone significant changes.
Based on this, the firm recommends focusing on the following. First, the energy and chemicals chain represented by oil, oil shipping, and coal will continue to benefit from global restocking demand for energy, while also possessing dividend attributes. Second, against the backdrop of a slowing AI industry trend and diverging fundamentals, combined with a significant pullback in October rate hike expectations, the suppression from real interest rates is gradually easing, and gold is ushering in an allocation opportunity.
Risk warnings: continued escalation of geopolitical conflicts; major breakthroughs in the AI industry trend.
Comments