Apple Market Perspective Market News and Key Data On the futures front, the Apple 2605 contract closed yesterday at 9,519 yuan per ton, a decrease of 361 yuan per ton, or -3.65%, from the previous day. In the spot market, the price for 80# Grade 1 and 2 late Fuji apples in Shandong Qixia was 4.00 yuan per jin, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of AP05-1519, an increase of 361 from the previous day. In Shaanxi Luochuan, the price for 70# and above semi-premium late Fuji apples was 4.35 yuan per jin, unchanged, with a spot basis of AP05-819, also up 361.
Recent market information indicates subdued trading activity in the apple market during the Qingming Festival period. Overall procurement in producing areas was moderate, with slow sales for average and lower-quality goods held by growers. In the northwest region, merchants primarily shipped their own inventories, while transactions for average-quality grower commodities were sluggish. In Shandong producing areas, a small number of merchants sought high-quality goods, and export procurement was conducted as needed. Currently, prices for average-quality grower supplies are highly fragmented, and trading activity is slow. In sales regions, the number of trucks arriving saw a slight increase, but end-consumer sales were generally soft. Prices in Qixia for 80# Grade 1 and 2 partial-red apples ranged from 3.2 to 4.5 yuan per jin, with 80# standard goods near 2.5 to 3.0 yuan per jin. In Shaanxi's Luochuan producing area, the outbound price for grower standard goods was 3.5-4.0 yuan per jin, and for semi-premium goods, 4.0-4.5 yuan per jin. In Gansu's Jingning area, semi-premium goods were priced at 5.0-7.5 yuan per jin, while grower average commodities varied from 3.7 to 5.0 yuan per jin.
Market Analysis Apple futures prices experienced a volatile decline yesterday. The overall apple market is currently under pressure, with Qingming Festival consumption falling short of expectations. Producing areas continue to see strength in high-quality goods and weakness in standard grades. Inventories of premium Gansu fruit are nearing depletion, supporting firm prices, while movement of average supplies in Shaanxi and Shandong remains slow, increasing growers' urgency to sell. Overall transactions are primarily small-scale restocking. In sales regions, end-consumer movement is relatively slow, with merchants purchasing cautiously and significant diversion of demand to alternative fruits. Total national cold storage inventory is at historically low levels; however, the proportion of premium fruit meeting delivery standards within the remaining stock is continuously declining, postponing the destocking pressure for standard grades. Weather conditions during the new season's flowering period have been generally stable, reinforcing yield increase expectations. The risk of frost in late April has not been entirely eliminated. In the near term, the futures market may continue to experience volatility.
Strategy Neutral.
Risks Sales region sentiment, destocking pressure for standard grades, new season yield increase expectations, and weather uncertainty.
Red Dates Market Perspective Market News and Key Data On the futures front, the Red Dates 2605 contract closed yesterday at 8,310 yuan per ton, a decrease of 305 yuan per ton, or -3.54%, from the previous day. In the spot market, the price for Grade 1 grey dates in Hebei was 7.90 yuan per kilogram, unchanged, with a spot basis of CJ05-410, an increase of 305 from the previous day.
Recent market information indicates that the acquisition price range for the 2025 season Xinjiang grey dates is referenced at 5.00-6.50 yuan per kilogram. This includes a mainstream price of 5.00-5.30 yuan per kilogram for standard goods in the Aksu area, 5.20-5.80 yuan per kilogram in the Aral area, a transaction price of 6.20-6.40 yuan per kilogram in Kashgar regimental farms, and a price of 6.00-6.30 yuan per kilogram in the Makit area. Temperatures in producing areas are normal, with farmers actively engaged in field management. Date trees in Hotan and Kashgar have begun to bud.
During the holiday period, over ten trucks arrived at the parking area of Hebei's Cui'erzhuang market. The incoming goods were primarily off-grade, with merchants selectively purchasing based on demand, leading to moderate transaction volumes. At Guangdong's Ruyifang market, three trucks arrived. Market prices were weak and stable, with downstream buyers purchasing as needed and overall transactions being moderate.
Market Analysis Red dates futures prices weakened and moved lower yesterday. Overall sales in producing areas are relatively slow, with processing plants experiencing moderate shipments. Growers have commenced spring field management. Currently, higher accumulated temperatures suggest the potential for earlier budding of date trees, gradually opening a window for weather-related risks. Trading sentiment in sales regions is muted, lacking concentrated restocking demand. Rising temperatures are further diverting consumption away from red dates. Inventory levels are relatively high compared to recent years, with a slow destocking pace. Pressure from warehouse receipts is becoming apparent, and the spot market is operating under pressure. In the short term, the combination of the consumption off-season and ample supply suggests the futures market may primarily experience low-level volatility. Changes in weather conditions for the new season will become a core variable for subsequent market dynamics.
Strategy Neutral.
Risks Substitution by seasonal fruits, inventory destocking pressure, and uncertainty regarding new season weather.
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