Tesla (TSLA.US) has finally brought its Semi electric heavy truck onto its own production line, nine years after the 2017 unveiling. In September, the company completed its first dedicated Semi factory in Sparks, Nevada, with orders from ZET SCALE, Einride, WattEV, QX Logistics, and IMC Logistics already on the list. Also this week, a Semi caught fire on Interstate 880 in California, closing one direction of the highway for about 10 hours, raising questions about this newly launched ramp-up curve.
Production level still undetermined
The Sparks plant sits adjacent to Tesla's largest battery factory, the Nevada Gigafactory, and covers about 167,000 square meters. Semi project lead Dan Priestley said, "This is not an ordinary assembly plant, but the closest we can get to a 'materials in, finished product out' form." Priestley gave a designed capacity of 50,000 units per year; Tesla's October 21 third-quarter report listed installed annual capacity for the Semi at 25,000 units, and the company has not disclosed actual production to date. The first truck rolled off the line in April, with a mass-production delivery event held on September 24; the production vehicle's battery has switched from externally sourced 2170 cells to self-produced 4680 cells.
Pricing: balanced by operating costs
The Semi's "reported price" is about $260,000 for the 325-mile standard version and about $290,000 for the 500-mile long-range version, excluding subsidies; a comparable new diesel tractor typically sells for $150,000 to $200,000. It should be noted that Tesla has never officially announced Semi pricing, and the $290,000 figure comes from a customer quote reported by Electrek in February this year. The price gap is offset by operating costs: the long-range version has a claimed range of 500 miles at a full load of 82,000 pounds and energy consumption of 1.7 kWh per mile; a comparison shown by Tesla at the production event indicates that diesel heavy trucks cost about $0.50 to $0.80 per mile to operate, while the Semi can hold steady at $0.20 to $0.25. On the competitor side, the Freightliner eCascadia has a claimed range of up to 230 miles and peak charging of 270 kW, while the Volvo VNR Electric offers 275 miles and 250 kW; PACCAR's (PCAR) Kenworth and Peterbilt also sell electric models. The Semi leads in range and charging power, but all three competitors have products that have been on the road for years and established service networks.
Two limitations within the 2,500-unit mega-order
The largest single order came from the ZET SCALE alliance on September 22—2,500 units, described as the largest single purchase in the history of North American electric Class 8 trucks, reportedly backed by Microsoft and Pepsi. But this order has two limitations: Tesla is the "primary OEM" rather than exclusive, with Kenworth, Volvo, and RIDE listed as secondary suppliers; the alliance also did not specify how many of the 2,500 units will actually be Semis. In other words, this is a procurement framework, not an order locked in for Tesla. Among the remaining orders, Einride placed an order for 500 units in August, WattEV ordered 370 units in May (mainly for short-haul at the Port of Oakland), and IMC Logistics ordered 50 units this month.
Sudden collision incident
On Tuesday local time, a Semi caught fire in the southbound lanes of I-880 near Hayward, California. There was no collision and no other vehicles involved; the driver evacuated safely and told highway patrol officers the truck "just caught fire" and that he did not know why. The California Highway Patrol closed I-880 in both directions for about 10 hours due to "hazardous chemical smoke risk"; patrol officers initially warned the battery could keep burning for 15 to 18 hours, but the actual response was faster than estimated. The identity of the vehicle operator has not been confirmed, Tesla did not respond, and the cause is still under investigation. This is the second Semi fire in two years to cause a California interstate closure. In August 2024, a Tesla-owned Semi caught fire near Emigrant Gap on I-80; the NTSB later determined that the vehicle went off the road, struck delineator posts and trees, and then the battery ignited. Firefighters used about 50,000 gallons of water, and the lanes were closed for up to 15 hours. The difference this time is that there was no collision, so the investigation focus falls on the vehicle itself—the battery pack, high-voltage system, drive unit, or fire spreading from tires/brakes. According to National Fire Protection Association data, U.S. fire departments responded to an average of 15,462 large truck fires per year from 2018 to 2022 (about 42 per day), with the vast majority of fleets being diesel vehicles; Tesla claims its vehicles experience one fire per 140 million miles. But for a model that has just entered mass production and still has a small fleet, a single non-collision fire is itself a high-weight sample.
Morgan Stanley: the math is in software subscriptions
Institutional interest in the Semi is more on the software side. Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco estimated in a September research note that, based on an autonomous-driving subscription fee of $0.85 to $1.00 per mile and 18,000 miles driven per month, one autonomous Semi could generate $12,000 to $18,000 in software revenue per month; if 82,000 units are deployed by 2040, software revenue alone would reach $17 billion (excluding vehicle and charging revenue). On this basis, Morgan Stanley raised its bull-case target price from $820 to $840, while maintaining a base-case target of $400 and an "equal-weight" rating. The premise of this logic is the realization of autonomous driving—Musk has said the goal is to offer an autonomous Semi in 2027, which currently remains optional value.
Comments