ASML Holding NV is scheduled to announce its first-quarter earnings on April 15. The central focus of this report will be the forward-looking signals management provides regarding customer demand guidance, particularly the progress of Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) orders for Samsung's P5 wafer fab, which could serve as the most significant driver for the stock price.
As ASML has ceased disclosing specific order data, the market harbors some anxiety regarding demand visibility. However, media reports indicate that both SK Hynix and Samsung have issued strong order signals, with Samsung's P5 fab having placed orders for approximately 20 EUV units.
J.P. Morgan highlights that these order dynamics represent the most substantial incremental information from the upcoming earnings report and maintains a positive stance on ASML's performance outlook.
UBS, taking a longer-term perspective, has identified five potential catalysts over the next 12 months, suggesting ASML has significant room to exceed market expectations. The firm anticipates full-year 2026 order intake to reach approximately €45-50 billion, substantially higher than the consensus estimate of €39.6 billion.
**Order Signals: Samsung P5 Fab as the Primary Focus** With ASML no longer reporting specific order figures starting this quarter, market attention has shifted entirely to management's qualitative commentary on customer demand trends.
Previous media reports indicated SK Hynix is investing around $8 billion in EUV equipment procurement, while Samsung has placed orders for about 20 EUV units for its P5 fab. J.P. Morgan notes that the progress of the Samsung P5 orders is the "most significant news item."
Furthermore, given the current tight supply conditions in the memory market, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is also expected to provide more frequent demand guidance for 2027 and beyond delivery schedules during 2026, further solidifying ASML's order visibility.
**Q1 Performance Expectations: Sequential Revenue Decline, Margins Aligned with Guidance** J.P. Morgan forecasts ASML's first-quarter revenue at €8.521 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.1% but a sequential decline of 12.3% from the previous quarter. This figure is approximately 2% below the consensus estimate of €8.696 billion, positioning it near the midpoint of the company's provided guidance range (€8.2-8.9 billion).
The firm expects a gross margin of 52.0%, largely in line with consensus and sitting in the middle of the company's guidance range (51%-53%). The earnings per share forecast is €6.47, about 3.2% below the consensus estimate.
UBS predicts a slightly higher Q1 revenue of €8.712 billion, with a gross margin forecast also at 52.0%.
Notably, buy-side investors appear more optimistic heading into the earnings report, generally anticipating that ASML's revenue and gross margin will reach the upper end of the guidance range.
**Full-Year Guidance: Revenue Expectations Exceed Company's Outlook, UBS Foresees an Upgrade** ASML's previous full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance was a range of 4% to 19% year-on-year growth, with a midpoint around 11.7%, implying revenue of approximately €36.5 billion. The current Bloomberg consensus expects growth of about 15.3%, exceeding the midpoint of the guidance.
UBS expects ASML to modestly raise its full-year guidance during this earnings report, potentially adjusting the range to 10%-20%, with a further increase anticipated at the Q2 earnings release.
J.P. Morgan holds a relatively more cautious view, suggesting that an early upgrade is not the base-case scenario, as the company typically prefers to adjust the full-year guidance midpoint at the half-year mark. However, if customer fab readiness for DUV equipment progresses better than expected or supply chain arrangements become clearer, an earlier adjustment remains a possibility.
**Next 12 Months: Five Catalysts Driving Potential Valuation Reassessment** UBS has outlined five key catalysts for the upcoming 12 months. Beyond the Q1 earnings on April 15, TSMC's technology symposium on April 22 is also highly anticipated—TSMC may publicly confirm its High-NA EUV adoption plans for the first time, potentially for initial use in small-volume production at the A14 node.
Between July and August, hyperscale cloud companies are expected to begin disclosing their 2027 capital expenditure outlooks. Projected aggregate CapEx growth of about 11% year-on-year for 11 major hyperscalers in 2027 could provide a positive catalyst for the semiconductor equipment sector if actual figures exceed expectations.
In October, ASML typically provides a qualitative outlook for the following year. Management is expected to describe the 2027 growth prospects using terms like "substantial" or "significant." Their projected 20% year-on-year growth rate is approximately 6 percentage points higher than current consensus, indicating significant potential for upward revisions.
In January 2025, ASML is expected to disclose its order backlog size for the first time in a year. The estimated backlog by the end of 2026 is approximately €45-50 billion, significantly above the consensus estimate of €39.6 billion. This disclosure could substantially enhance market expectations for the company's medium-term revenue visibility.
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