2021年后将迎来新一轮熊市？投行首席策略师这样说

美港电讯2020-11-11

即便是从历史的角度来看，股票市场如今的乐观情绪也达到了一个空前的高点。然而，考虑到利率在上升，而许多人对其估值充满信心，美国的新牛市可能相对温和。首先，许多分析师估计标普500指数将很快触及4,000点，较当前水平上涨近13%。一些人认为，标普500指数到2021年底可能会触及4,500点，也就是说，该指数将在一年多一点的时间里上涨约27%。由对经济持续复苏的预期推动的本次上涨可谓相当强劲。...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

年轻的太太
2020-11-11
年轻的太太
??

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1172372185?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/318dced6c8505427ba4c5a73eb4a7981","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2020-11-11 21:51","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"1172372185","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"2021年后将迎来新一轮熊市？投行首席策略师这样说","media":"美港电讯","content":"<div>\n<p>即便是从历史的角度来看，股票市场如今的乐观情绪也达到了一个空前的高点。然而，考虑到利率在上升，而许多人对其估值充满信心，美国的新牛市可能相对温和。\n首先，许多分析师估计标普500指数将很快触及4,000点，较当前水平上涨近13%。一些人认为，标普500指数到2021年底可能会触及4,500点，也就是说，该指数将在一年多一点的时间里上涨约27%。\n由对经济持续复苏的预期推动的本次上涨可谓相当强劲。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1001358\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"live_meigang","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2021年后将迎来新一轮熊市？投行首席策略师这样说</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2021年后将迎来新一轮熊市？投行首席策略师这样说\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-11 21:51 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1001358><strong>美港电讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>即便是从历史的角度来看，股票市场如今的乐观情绪也达到了一个空前的高点。然而，考虑到利率在上升，而许多人对其估值充满信心，美国的新牛市可能相对温和。\n首先，许多分析师估计标普500指数将很快触及4,000点，较当前水平上涨近13%。一些人认为，标普500指数到2021年底可能会触及4,500点，也就是说，该指数将在一年多一点的时间里上涨约27%。\n由对经济持续复苏的预期推动的本次上涨可谓相当强劲。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1001358\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1001358","article_id":"1172372185","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/318dced6c8505427ba4c5a73eb4a7981"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172372185","pubTimestamp":1605102701,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"live_meigang","name":"美港电讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"价值股是否可以入场？","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"ushknews.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"translate_title":"Will there be a new bear market after 2021? This is what the chief strategist of the investment bank said.","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e2faeda6484bfcf2a6b508e2b029cb","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"即便是从历史的角度来看，股票市场如今的乐观情绪也达到了一个空前的高点。然而，考虑到利率在上升，而许多人对其估值充满信心，美国的新牛市可能相对温和。\n首先，许多分析师估计标普500指数将很快触及4,000点，较当前水平上涨近13%。一些人认为，标普500指数到2021年底可能会触及4,500点，也就是说，该指数将在一年多一点的时间里上涨约27%。\n由对经济持续复苏的预期推动的本次上涨可谓相当强劲。标普500指数自3月23日跌至最低点以来上涨了58%，今年下半年的回升覆盖的个股和板块越来越广。本周，随着今年新冠肺炎疫苗获得批准的希望大大增加，缓解疫情的前景看起来并不迷茫。\n标准普尔500指数成份股的平均市盈率略低于22倍，高于低于20倍的10年历史平均市盈率。提高估值的主要因素之一是低利率，这变相提高了企业利润的价值。\n利率上升可能会在2021年后削弱市场的活力。随着对经济增长和通胀预期的升温，10年期美国国债收益率已从上周末的0.76%和9月初的0.63%升至0.96%。\nStifel机构股票策略主管Barry Bannister在一份报告中写道：“展望2021年中后期，在美联储债券几乎确定继续膨胀的情况下，为成长型股票支付过高的价格是要冒着较高的风险。”“2021可能是标普500指数攀升的最后一年。”\n美国联邦储备理事会和财政部自新冠病毒危机爆发以来推出的货币和财政宽松计划旨在保持经济中的流动性，但是许多人认为，疫苗的推出将使美国经济被压抑的需求得到释放，迭加原本就较高的流动性，使得疫苗上市后的通货膨胀将进一步加剧。通货膨胀可能会促使美联储提高利率，而美联储目前还没有加息的计划。\nBannister对成长型股票如今股价过热的情况发表评论表示，成长股从较低的利率中获益匪浅，因为在较低的利率下，它们的现金流更有价值。价值股也是如此，但较低的利率表明经济环境走软，经济走软会给这些公司的盈利带来压力。不过，成长股对经济变化不如价值股那么敏感。\n可以肯定的是，Bannister认为成长股短期内将继续上涨。如今国会四分五裂的现状可能意味着财政刺激法案规模将不如预期，这意味着更少的通货膨胀。也象征着更低的利率，这对成长股有利。他将标普500指数目标价定为3,800点，这一估值多少受成长股的推动。根据Vanguard标普500成长型交易所交易基金(Vanguard S&P 500 Growth exchange-traded fund，代码:VOOG)的数据，过去5天里该指数下跌了1.8%。\n不过，多数市场观察人士认为，从长期来看，利率必定上升。10年期美国国债的实际利率为负，意味着名义利率低于预期通胀率，而这是一种不寻常的现象。\"实际收益率上升会抑制标普500指数的整体升势，\" Bannister称。\n如今的局势下，市盈率无法大幅增长。标准普尔500指数目前的市盈率表明，股票风险溢价约为3.6%，即投资者要求持有股票的10年期美国国债的收益率超过10年期美国国债的收益率。从历史上看，这一风险溢价约为3.5%，风险溢价通常由股价上涨推动的，股价上涨则会降低股票的预期回报率。\n这种风险溢价不会从目前水平大幅下降，而利率上升只会侵蚀估值。因此，短期收益的增长将贯穿这波牛市。从2022年开始，国内生产总值预计将以每年2%左右的速度增长，而这意味着企业利润增长的放缓。\n和华尔街的许多分析师一样，Bannister预计标普500的年回报率将处于历史区间的底部，在2020年的剩余时间里保持在6%以下。他在报告中附带的一张图表显示，当市盈率升至历史高位时，股票的回报也会随之下降。\n一言蔽之，尽管股票可能不再是过去那般的长期投资标的物，但投资者现在不一定就要抛售。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":304931153,"gmtCreate":1605106827872,"gmtModify":1704959122970,"author":{"id":"3567118012147142","authorId":"3567118012147142","name":"年轻的太太","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3567118012147142","authorIdStr":"3567118012147142"},"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/304931153","repostId":1172372185,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1172372185"}