Iran has issued a series of strong signals just before the resumption of US-Iran talks, insisting on sole authority over mine clearance and navigation management in the Strait of Hormuz, casting uncertainty over the future of this critical global energy chokepoint.
According to reports, the Iranian Foreign Ministry issued a statement on the evening of June 29, clearly stating that mine-clearing operations in the Strait of Hormuz will be conducted solely by Iran without cooperation with any country, directly rejecting a joint demining initiative previously announced by French President Emmanuel Macron.
Simultaneously, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi indicated that if Oman is unwilling to participate in joint management, Iran will proceed with its unilateral regulation of navigation traffic in the Strait, further highlighting the deep-seated disagreements among parties over control of this vital waterway.
These statements contributed to a rise in international oil prices on Monday. As of the close on June 29, WTI crude futures rose 2.2% to $70.75 per barrel.
Talks Outlook Darkens: Iran Denies Direct Dialogue with US
Recent statements from both the US and Iran show a clear disconnect, raising doubts about whether the talks scheduled for June 30 in Doha will proceed as planned.
On the 29th, former US President Donald Trump posted on social media that Iran had requested talks, stating "talks will be held tomorrow in Doha," and reiterating that "Iran will not have a nuclear weapon."
However, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani explicitly stated that evening that Iran has no plans for any talks with the US in the coming days.
According to the Iranian Foreign Ministry, an expert delegation will indeed be sent to Doha, but its purpose is to follow up on the implementation of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, and is not related to the visit of a US delegation to Qatar.
Kanaani stated that, according to Article 13 of the Memorandum, the initiation of final agreement negotiations is contingent upon the commencement and sustained implementation of Articles 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11, and that this stage has not yet been reached.
He also revealed that Iran is monitoring the implementation process of two US commitments: allowing Iranian crude oil exports (Article 10) and unfreezing Iranian assets (Article 11), noting that the US has issued the necessary licenses for oil exports.
Strait Control Dispute: Fee Threats and Demining Sovereignty
The issue of control over the Strait of Hormuz has become one of the most sensitive structural disputes in the current negotiations.
The current interim agreement stipulates that Iran will not levy transit fees on passing ships for 60 days, but explicitly reserves the possibility of such fees thereafter.
The United States, European nations, and Gulf Arab states have all clearly opposed Iran's fee proposal.
Once the 60-day window expires, whether Iran implements fees will have a direct impact on the global energy trade landscape. This waterway carried approximately one-fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas before the conflict.
On the demining issue, Iran has firmly rejected multilateral involvement. Macron announced earlier on the 29th that France and Oman had decided to conduct joint demining work in the Strait of Hormuz with partners to ensure the safety and freedom of navigation.
The Iranian Foreign Ministry promptly rejected this in its statement, describing the current regional situation as "sensitive and complex," and strongly advised France not to further complicate matters with "provocative actions."
Tanker Transit: Market Maintains Cautious Optimism
Despite the complex situation, tanker companies and crews continue to transit the Strait of Hormuz, providing some support to the market.
According to reports, two vessels were attacked during the escalation over the weekend, with one fully loaded supertanker hit, leading to a brief slowdown in Strait traffic.
However, looking at the overall trend, tanker companies and crews have shown a continued willingness to transit, which is seen as a key prerequisite for the global oil market to normalize and release millions of barrels of supply. Ships trapped in the Persian Gulf continue to depart, and Iranian crude is still finding buyers.
Eric Van Nostrand, Chief Investment Officer at Lazard, stated: "Markets often move on short-term sentiment. The transit situation in the Strait of Hormuz has clearly improved compared to a few weeks ago, leading many to position ahead of a potential decline in oil prices."
Current oil prices are near pre-conflict levels, and the market generally holds optimistic expectations for a recovery of Hormuz supplies to near pre-war scale.
Morgan Stanley has accordingly lowered its forecast for the spot price of Brent crude, citing three factors pointing to ample physical oil supply: a faster-than-expected Strait reopening, resilient US exports, and weaker Chinese demand.
Comments