Crude oil posted its largest monthly gain since March as traders weighed ongoing global conflicts and supply threats spanning from the Persian Gulf to the Black Sea. Brent crude for the most-active contract settled 1.2% higher at near $88 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) added 1% to settle just below $85 per barrel. In post-settlement trading on Friday, WTI briefly surged above $86 after a CBS report indicated that the United States and Israel are preparing to strike Iranian energy targets. Earlier, U.S. President Donald Trump expressed waning confidence in Iranian negotiators, signaling that armed conflict may persist and further disrupt Middle Eastern energy shipments.
Oil prices also faced upward pressure from a series of attacks on vessels loaded with petroleum at and near the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal on Russia's Black Sea coast. Energy markets broadly rallied in July, with global benchmark Brent crude gaining nearly 24% for the month. Diesel, natural gas, and other energy products also saw significant increases. Chevron, the U.S. oil giant, stated that the global refining system would struggle to compensate for large-scale supply disruptions, keeping fuel production profit margins elevated.
The fragile ceasefire between Washington and Tehran collapsed in July, with Yemen's Houthi rebels joining the conflict, adding new risks to Red Sea oil shipments. The safety of crude exports via the CPC pipeline remains highly uncertain. The CPC handles the majority of Kazakhstan's crude oil exports and is a vital supply source for European refiners. According to sources, after discussions on Friday about potentially suspending oil shipments indefinitely, CPC will continue operations. No party has claimed responsibility for the string of attacks, though Ukraine has previously targeted tankers in Russia's Black Sea waters.
"Global supply is becoming tighter and relies on surplus U.S. crude and refined products to balance the market, so much so that U.S. physical supply is tightening much faster than a few weeks ago," said Scott Shelton, an energy expert at TP ICAP Group. However, despite renewed U.S.-Iran tensions threatening shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, there are signs that crude volumes transiting the waterway are recovering. WTI for September delivery rose 1.3% to settle at $84.67 per barrel. Brent for October delivery added 1.2% to settle at $87.93 per barrel, while the September contract, which expired Friday, settled at $90.12 per barrel.
Copper posted a monthly gain, driven by escalating shortages of raw materials for smelters, which intensified global supply concerns. London Metal Exchange (LME) copper traded near $13,800 per metric ton, with a cumulative increase of over 3% in July. Key spreads signaled tightening short-term supply. Traders also monitored U.S. decisions on copper tariffs. By the close, LME copper edged down 0.1% to $13,791 per ton. LME aluminum slipped 0.4% to $3,184 per ton. LME nickel fell 0.1% to $17,249 per ton. LME zinc rose 0.6% to $3,643 per ton. LME tin gained 0.5% to $55,268 per ton. LME lead declined 1% to $1,877.5 per ton.
Gold prices declined, pressured by the U.S. dollar index ending a five-day losing streak. The precious metal fell below $4,050 per ounce, though it remained on track for a slight monthly gain in July, which would mark its first monthly advance since February. Since the onset of the U.S.-Iran war, gold has fallen over 20%. High energy prices have stoked inflationary pressures, increasing the likelihood that interest rates will remain elevated for longer. Gold traders continued to search for clues on the Federal Reserve's next policy moves. While the Fed decided to hold interest rates steady this week, more policymakers believe that borrowing costs will eventually need to rise to achieve the 2% inflation target. As of 4:59 p.m. Eastern Time, spot gold fell 1.4% to $4,046.15 per ounce. Spot silver dropped 2.4% to $57.5953 per ounce.
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