Thailand's third-largest sugar exporter, Khon Kaen Sugar (KSL), has expressed concern that the impending "super El Niño" could severely impact sugarcane planting for the 2026/27 season. This climate phenomenon, characterized by abnormal warming of the Pacific Ocean surface, is expected to trigger extreme drought across Thailand, posing a major threat to the country's agricultural sector.
KSL President Chalush Chinthammit has called on the government to develop contingency plans for water shortages and warned that erratic rainfall patterns could have a lasting impact on output. "Sugarcane planting has just begun, and we expect rainfall to stop within two weeks. Farmers and the industry are closely monitoring the situation," he said.
Thailand's sugarcane planting area covers 11 to 12 million rai. KSL warned that with cassava prices currently higher, farmers may switch cultivation, potentially shrinking the sugarcane area. The company estimates that 2026/27 season sugarcane output will fall from 106 million tonnes in the 2025/26 season to near 100 million tonnes; the previous season ended in March this year.
Global sugar prices are expected to rise, with KSL forecasting sugar prices at around 17 cents per pound in 2027. Current sugar prices are approximately 16 cents per pound. KSL also advises sugar mills to slow exports and increase inventories to hedge against future production risks. The new season is expected to run from December to March, with 57 mills nationwide participating in crushing operations.
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