Haitong International released a research report stating that due to recent sales pressure on Li Auto-W (02015), delays in volume growth caused by the MEGA recall and battery supplier switch for the i6, as well as conservative Q4 sales guidance, the firm has lowered its revenue forecasts for 2025–2027 to RMB111.6 billion, RMB122 billion, and RMB136.8 billion (down 14%, 28%, and 33%, respectively). Based on comparable company valuations, Haitong assigned a 1.3x P/S ratio for 2026, deriving a target price of HK$81.34 and maintaining a "Neutral" rating.
Li Auto reported Q3 2025 revenue of RMB27.4 billion, down 36% YoY, with automotive sales revenue at RMB25.9 billion, down 37% YoY, as weak quarterly deliveries continued to weigh on overall performance. Non-GAAP net loss stood at RMB360 million, turning negative both YoY and QoQ. Excluding the one-time impact of the MEGA recall, gross margin would have reached 20.4%. However, given the non-recurring nature of the recall, the company's operational resilience remains intact, and Haitong expects Li Auto to return to profitability in Q4.
Haitong noted that Li Auto has begun deliveries of its i6/i8 all-electric models, complementing its mainstream and premium family EV segments and providing a more stable growth foundation for its EV business. The i-series has seen significant penetration in key domestic markets, with orders accelerating in September. Facing tight supply chain conditions, the company introduced a dual-battery supply system (CATL and Sunwoda) for the i6 starting November, ensuring consistent performance standards. Li Auto expects monthly production capacity for the i6 to reach 20,000 units by early next year. Haitong, however, cautioned that the short-term battery supplier switch may impact gross margins, with user acceptance of mixed battery sourcing being a critical factor.
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