Since the beginning of the year, the share price of Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) has experienced a volatile downward trend. At this critical juncture, renowned investor Duan Yongping has once again voiced his opinion, stating that when viewed over a longer timeframe, the current share price is "truly not expensive." However, public fund positioning indicates that allocations to the baijiu sector are at low levels, with the allocation ratio already falling below 4%.
At the start of the New Year, Kweichow Moutai began direct sales of Feitian Moutai liquor through its i Moutai app, a move that has attracted significant market attention. Duan Yongping is highly optimistic about this initiative, praising Moutai's market-oriented reforms, affirming the value of the i Moutai platform, and expressing his view that Moutai is suitable for long-term holding, with current valuations appearing reasonable.
On January 21st, he revealed via a social media platform his plan to acquire an additional 20,000 shares of Kweichow Moutai at a price of 1,365 yuan, involving a total amount of approximately 27.3 million yuan. This move once again demonstrates his firm confidence in the long-term value of Moutai.
Data from "Jiujia Neican" shows that the average terminal retail prices of the top ten single products in the Chinese baijiu market are weakly diverging; the total price for one bottle of each of the top ten products is 8,889 yuan, a decrease of 4 yuan from the previous day. The market saw four products rise, five fall, and one remain flat, with Qinghualang leading gains at 11 yuan per bottle, while Jingpin Moutai retreated by 8 yuan per bottle.
The data for "Jiujia Neican" is sourced from the actual transaction terminal retail prices collected from approximately 200 data points. The influence of the i Moutai platform on the terminal average prices of Feitian Moutai and Jingpin Moutai is becoming apparent.
In contrast to Duan Yongping's positive outlook on the baijiu sector, public funds have shown relative coolness towards allocating to Moutai. Overall, as of the end of 2025, Kweichow Moutai ranked as the ninth largest heavyweight stock held by public funds, with fund holdings totaling 19.1997 million shares, a decrease from the 19.6484 million shares held at the end of the third quarter of 2025.
Regarding the allocation proportion of public funds to the baijiu sector, calculations by Western Securities indicate that the current fund holdings in baijiu have declined from a peak of 16% in 2020 to the current 3.93%, sitting at the 23.4th percentile historically. This level is already lower than the public fund allocation levels at the start of both the second (2009) and fourth (2019) baijiu cycles, suggesting that the conditions for筹码 for a new cycle to begin are largely in place.
GF Securities released a research report stating that the proportion of baijiu holdings in active equity funds has fallen into an underweight range for the sixth consecutive quarter. Compared to the two previous lows in baijiu fund holdings, the current sector's overweight ratio has dropped to a historical low point, even under extremely pessimistic expectations, with optimism for the potential elasticity of increased allocations driven by a subsequent recovery in expectations.
In fact, compared to the rapid expansion seen previously, the alcoholic beverage industry as a whole is now exhibiting "slower growth and structural optimization." Reasons for this include increasingly rational consumption, policy regulation, and overcapacity.
Data shows that liquor companies are facing significant profit pressure. The combined revenue of 20 A-listed baijiu companies for the first three quarters was 317.779 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.9%, while net profit was 122.571 billion yuan, down 6.93% year-on-year.
Since the fourth quarter of 2025, leading baijiu companies have adopted measures such as continuously controlling shipments, reducing burdens for distributors, and promoting off-take sales to reduce channel inventory. Taking into comprehensive consideration factors such as the gradual stabilization of off-take sales, the one extra day in the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, and various baijiu consumption scenarios during the Spring Festival, institutions judge that the actual off-take sales of baijiu during the 2026 Spring Festival are expected to remain stable, suggesting no need for excessive pessimism.
A CITIC Securities research report points out that the baijiu industry is about to usher in Spring Festival peak season marketing activities, with channels continuously learning and absorbing the multi-dimensional reform experiences in channels, products, and more conducted by leading companies following distributor conferences. The bank believes that the industry may refocus on market cultivation and consumer education under new reforms and directions, promoting off-take sales and reducing burdens for distributors.
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