The latest data from the daily liquor price monitoring report for the past 24 hours indicates a mild, broad-based correction in the average terminal retail prices for major Chinese baijiu products on July 6th.
If one bottle of each major product were bundled for sale today, the total price would be 9,901 yuan, a decline of 19 yuan from the previous day.
Following a widespread increase yesterday, today saw a technical pullback across many varieties, with clear market divergence.
Only Gujinggong Gu 20 and Crystal Jiannanchun saw price increases today, while all other varieties declined, though overall terminal market sentiment remained largely stable.
Of the 11 major baijiu products tracked, two rose and nine fell.
On the upside, Gujinggong Gu 20 led the gains, rising 7 yuan per bottle, continuing a multi-day strong rally to set a new record high since the inception of the price report last November.
Crystal Jiannanchun increased by 2 yuan per bottle.
On the downside, Qinghua Lang led the declines, falling 6 yuan per bottle.
Wuliangye Pu Wu Eighth Generation dropped 5 yuan per bottle, continuing its pattern of low-level volatility.
Premium Moutai decreased by 4 yuan per bottle.
Flying Fairy Moutai, Qinghua Fen 20, and Xijiu Junpin all fell by 3 yuan per bottle.
Wuliangye 1618 declined by 2 yuan per bottle, barely holding above the 820 yuan level, as its price center has been steadily shifting lower over the past month.
Both Guojiao 1573 and Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ saw minor decreases of 1 yuan per bottle, though both remain within the high price range observed over the past month.
The daily price data is sourced from approximately 200 collection points reasonably distributed across major regions nationwide, including but not limited to authorized distributors, independent dealers, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets.
The raw sample data consists of actual terminal retail transaction prices processed at each point over the past 24 hours, aiming to provide objective, scientific, and traceable data on the market prices of well-known baijiu brands.
Following the official launch of the iMoutai platform selling Flying Fairy Moutai at 1,499 yuan per bottle (adjusted to 1,539 yuan on March 31st) and Premium Moutai at 2,299 yuan per bottle (adjusted to 2,359 yuan on May 16th), the gravitational influence of this new sales channel on the average terminal retail prices of these two products has gradually become apparent.
The daily published prices follow a calculation rule weighted by actual transaction volume, and the verifiable prices from this platform have been incorporated into the terminal retail price calculations for these two products.
In other industry news, a recent weekly sector report on the food and beverage industry noted that the current prosperity cycle of the baijiu industry is in a window of bottom-building and a phase of "slowing decline".
Consumer sentiment during the Dragon Boat Festival window (May-June) remained slightly weaker than in previous years, but the rate of decline has relatively slowed, not yet affecting the judgment of a gradual industry fundamentals bottom.
Since the off-season began, the price levels of mainstream baijiu stocks have generally performed steadily.
The price performance of Flying Fairy Moutai has been commendable, with older inventory visibly being digested, sentiment among various market participants continues to stabilize, and active price management by distilleries is also helping to shape channel price expectations.
On an individual stock level, the report suggests valuing distilleries from a medium-to-long-term perspective using an EPS×PE (earnings per share × price-to-earnings ratio) pricing model.
Distilleries with differentiated competitive advantages and inherent strengths have historically broken through constraints and scaled new heights in successive cycles.
In terms of allocation, the report emphasizes recommending high-end baijiu with outstanding brand power and deep moats, such as Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd. and Wuliangye, as well as Shanxi Fenjiu, whose channel momentum is still in an upward phase, and stable regional leaders benefiting from resilient mass demand.
It also suggests monitoring cyclical stocks with potential for catalytic upside, such as Gujinggong and Luzhou Laojiao, and flexible distilleries catalyzed by new products or channels, such as Zhenjiu Lidu, Shede, and Jiuguijiu.
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