西方石油、雪佛龙创新高，力证巴菲特买入逻辑？

华尔街大事件2022-05-27

在美股众多板块当中，石油板块确实不负所望。数据显示，截至目前雪佛龙单周涨幅达5.23%，西方石油单周涨幅达8.54%。两家石油股巨头的股价表现均创阶段性新高。石油股备受关注背后，巴菲特的持仓动作也是一大看点。2022年一季度，伯克希尔罕见的高换手率。据统计，今年一季度伯克希尔整体换手率上升至12.49%，创2015年以来（2015年三季度换手率为21.21%）的最高值。除了巴菲特此前一直偏爱的金融...

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西西里的Angela
2022-05-28
西西里的Angela
[微笑]
西西里的Angela
2022-05-28
西西里的Angela
投資真的是要逆向思維
JWZ137
2022-05-28
JWZ137
Wow
怂人得志
2022-05-28
怂人得志
💪
怂人得志
2022-05-28
怂人得志
💪🎉💰
A_Isopod
2022-05-28
A_Isopod
還行

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href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/mXrXxY-4sK4KhBQ9yNfn8w><strong>华尔街大事件</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在美股众多板块当中，石油板块确实不负所望。数据显示，截至目前雪佛龙单周涨幅达5.23%，西方石油单周涨幅达8.54%。两家石油股巨头的股价表现均创阶段性新高。石油股备受关注背后，巴菲特的持仓动作也是一大看点。2022年一季度，伯克希尔罕见的高换手率。据统计，今年一季度伯克希尔整体换手率上升至12.49%，创2015年以来（2015年三季度换手率为21.21%）的最高值。除了巴菲特此前一直偏爱的金融...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/mXrXxY-4sK4KhBQ9yNfn8w\">Source 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Mason & Co.预计，世界其他地方的炼油日产能已经减少213万桶。而且，由于没有计划让新的美国炼油厂投产，目前炼油企业正获得创纪录的利润，而供应紧张形势却变得越来越严峻。事实上自从2021年开始，全球原油供需平衡表就在开始偏紧，至2022年全年预计缺口在172万桶每日，核心原因是OPEC成员国从2021年初开始的的持续减产计划，使得OPEC满足全球额外缺口比例逐渐低至90%。主要国家自身原油需求与生产能力也出现难以自给自足的现象。数据来源：OPEC、东方财富证券研究所数据来源：OPEC、东方财富证券研究所在供需逐渐失衡的状态下，伴随通胀—滞胀的长期存在，油价将长期高位走势，这将大幅改善石油公司的利润。同期5月26日，英国财政大臣苏纳克宣布对石油和天然气行业征收25%的利润税。苏纳克表示:“石油和天然气行业之所以能获得巨额利润，不是因为最近对风险承担、创新或效率的改变，而是由于全球大宗商品价格飙升。”据巴菲特读书会消息，西方石油管理层曾表示，油价每上涨1美元，将为公司每年产生2.25亿美元的收益。在2021年，当时公司所计算的全年平均油价为66.14美元，在当时的价格水平下，油气业务共为公司带来了41亿美元的营运利润。而随着目前油价飙升至历史高位，假设全年平均油价维持在106美元/桶，那么公司将有潜力创造90亿美元的额外利润。而在增加储备方面，历史数据同样严峻。尽管供给侧资本开支翻倍，而储备替代率并未改善，需求持续导致未来供求缺口增大。自然资源研究公司Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates于2021年10月1日发布了标题为“令人难以置信的萎缩的石油巨头”的研究。他们研究的四个石油巨头在2000年制定了一个目标，即每年增加5%的储量。然而，四家企业都失败了，它们的储备实际上都在下降。据Goehring 研究表示，“从2000年到2010年，四大巨头在上游资本支出上花费了6150亿美元。同期，他们生产了503亿桶油当量，发现了411亿桶油当量的新储量，导致储量替代率为86%，且平均发现和开发成本为每桶油当量 14.30美元。2010年至2020年间，上游资本支出飙升至1.15美元。与此同时，这些公司生产了506亿桶油当量，并发现了433亿桶油当量的新储量——与前十年非常吻合。尽管上游资本支出几乎翻了一番，但这些公司仍然无法用新的储备来替代生产。事实上，尽管支出增加，储备替代率仍保持在85%。成效没有显著提高，但寻找和开发新储量的成本却几乎翻了一番，从每桶油当量14.30美元增加到 26.40美元。”虽然面临全球经济增速放缓和新旧能源转型，2023-2025年全球原油需求每年仍将维持100-150万桶/日的增量，原油供给能力较难满足需求增量，从中长期来看，全球原油供需缺口将长期存在。以史为鉴，通胀期间能源公司往往表现更为突出。美股在1970年代通胀—滞胀阶段的表现，能源公司股价收益表现超过了10倍。到1981年底美股市值前20大公司中，能源板块甚至占了一半。回顾美联储的6次通胀—加息周期，可以发现能源公司跑赢市场并获得超额回报的胜算最大。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":614411355,"gmtCreate":1653723306379,"gmtModify":1676533160090,"author":{"id":"3547850172003897","authorId":"3547850172003897","name":"西西里的Angela","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17d22f7b58c770732fa62afa27b3c0af","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3547850172003897","authorIdStr":"3547850172003897"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/614411355","repostId":1172880145,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":614411981,"gmtCreate":1653723288548,"gmtModify":1676533160088,"author":{"id":"3547850172003897","authorId":"3547850172003897","name":"西西里的Angela","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17d22f7b58c770732fa62afa27b3c0af","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3547850172003897","authorIdStr":"3547850172003897"},"htmlText":"投資真的是要逆向思維","listText":"投資真的是要逆向思維","text":"投資真的是要逆向思維","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/614411981","repostId":1172880145,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9025543691,"gmtCreate":1653708327213,"gmtModify":1676535331349,"author":{"id":"3575067142498671","authorId":"3575067142498671","name":"JWZ137","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842968796125e5a418b21a3b4ab603ef","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575067142498671","authorIdStr":"3575067142498671"},"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9025543691","repostId":1172880145,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9025586354,"gmtCreate":1653704663578,"gmtModify":1676535330271,"author":{"id":"4115268343523852","authorId":"4115268343523852","name":"怂人得志","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07c185e1405f47c08145e72f8338a07a","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4115268343523852","authorIdStr":"4115268343523852"},"htmlText":"💪","listText":"💪","text":"💪","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9025586354","repostId":1172880145,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9025517072,"gmtCreate":1653704028196,"gmtModify":1676535330131,"author":{"id":"4115268343523852","authorId":"4115268343523852","name":"怂人得志","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07c185e1405f47c08145e72f8338a07a","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4115268343523852","authorIdStr":"4115268343523852"},"htmlText":"💪🎉💰","listText":"💪🎉💰","text":"💪🎉💰","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9025517072","repostId":1172880145,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9025515609,"gmtCreate":1653703921301,"gmtModify":1676535330093,"author":{"id":"4090234319856510","authorId":"4090234319856510","name":"A_Isopod","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5ceab71416b120bab4604c0754b52a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4090234319856510","authorIdStr":"4090234319856510"},"htmlText":"還行","listText":"還行","text":"還行","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9025515609","repostId":1172880145,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":64,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":2,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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​西方石油、雪佛龙创新高，力证巴菲特买入逻辑？

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西方石油、雪佛龙创新高，力证巴菲特买入逻辑？