As of the week ending May 22, 2026, the main soybean meal futures contract settled at 2,990 yuan per ton. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report indicated that for the week ending May 14, 2026, net sales of U.S. soybean meal for the 2025/26 marketing year reached 475,700 tons, marking a 38% increase from the previous week and a 71% rise from the four-week average. Net sales for the 2026/27 marketing year were 16,400 tons, compared to 3,500 tons the week prior. On May 21, total soybean meal transactions at major domestic oil mills amounted to 126,800 tons, a decrease of 84,300 tons from the previous day, with spot transactions accounting for 70,800 tons.
While the international soybean market is expected to experience a short-term, steady upward trend, domestic soybean prices in China are anticipated to decline. The prolonged price stalemate observed since May is expected to break in the latter half of the month, with price reductions occurring in both the northeastern and Huang-Huai-Hai production regions.
Recent fundamental data indicates a decline in U.S. soybean crushing demand. The NOPA reported a U.S. crush volume of 211.856 million bushels for April, a 6.3% decrease from March's 226.161 million bushels. The average daily soybean crush was 7.062 million bushels, reaching a seven-month low. The primary reason for the month-on-month decline in April's crush volume was the temporary shutdowns by soybean processors for seasonal maintenance and repairs, following several months of record or near-record high crushing levels. Consequently, domestic demand for U.S. soybeans has softened, while export expectations have increased, resulting in a neutral overall impact on U.S. soybean futures from the demand side.
Following a previous round of downstream inventory replenishment, the domestic soybean market has entered another phase of weak sales in production areas. Currently, most traders in the northeastern production region report slow sales. As temperatures gradually rise, conditions become increasingly unfavorable for soybean storage. The consumer market is also entering its off-season, leading to sluggish trading of soybean products in the terminal market.
Due to high planting costs this year, soybean acreage has been reduced in favor of increased corn planting. Multiple bearish factors are currently converging in the domestic soybean market, pointing to a generally negative outlook. From the supply perspective, while the ongoing reduction in planting acreage may benefit the market in the long term, the accelerated pace of concentrated sales by farmers and traders in the short term, coupled with a phase of increased market supply and the release of remaining grain stocks at the grassroots level, is directly suppressing spot prices. Traders generally hold high inventory levels, and the digestion of previously stocked inventory is progressing slowly. Against a backdrop of no significant demand recovery, the willingness to sell has increased, leading to sustained selling pressure in the market. Downstream demand remains weak, with processing enterprises purchasing only as needed and showing insufficient enthusiasm, making it difficult to absorb the current market surplus and highlighting the supply-demand imbalance.
Futures analysts suggest that as the weather warms, feed and breeding consumption is improving sequentially. Recent soybean meal transactions at mainstream oil mills have shown signs of recovery, and coastal inventories have been declining consecutively. Against a backdrop of low valuations, improved market sentiment, and the positive influence of strengthening U.S. soybean prices, the main soybean meal futures contract price may experience a fluctuating upward trend.
Market attention is focused on weather conditions in the U.S. Midwest. Forecasts indicate temperatures in U.S. soybean production areas will be above average next week, potentially further accelerating early-stage crop growth. The exchange has raised its estimate for Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production to 50.1 million tons, up from a previous estimate of 48.6 million tons. Argentina's soybean harvest progress stands at 74.7%. Domestically, protein meal prices are expected to maintain a strong, albeit volatile, trend. China faces significant soybean arrival pressure in May, and severe losses in the breeding sector are causing spot prices to lag behind futures, keeping the basis market weak. There are no immediate supply concerns for domestic soybean meal, with rising import costs providing underlying support.
Market analysis forecasts that U.S. soybean futures prices may fluctuate higher due to potential new agreements. However, for domestic soybeans in China, persistently poor demand is prompting market price reductions. With no expectation for demand to improve in the near term, domestic soybean prices are projected to continue declining in late May, with the national average price expected to fall to 4,860 yuan per ton.
Comments