Following a weekend where U.S. President Trump signaled a de-escalation in tensions with Iran, U.S. stock markets surged once again on Monday. This recurring phenomenon has been dubbed the "Axios Put" by the market, referring to the observation that several key market turning points this year, tied to escalations or de-escalations in U.S. military action against Iran, have coincided with related reports from the Axios news website.
The past weekend saw the U.S. and Iran exchange retaliatory airstrikes around the Strait of Hormuz. Subsequently, Trump signaled to Wall Street that both sides were prepared for a new round of peace talks, leading to a rapid improvement in market sentiment.
On Monday, U.S. stocks rallied broadly. According to Dow Jones Market Data, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 52,000 for the first time, setting a new record high. The S&P 500 gained 1.2% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.1%, with both indices snapping a five-session losing streak.
Recurring Pattern of Weekend Escalation, Monday Rebound
This market pattern has been evident throughout the first half of 2026. The U.S. has often taken military action or adopted a tough stance over the weekend, followed by a rapid de-escalation, with financial markets then rebounding on the next trading day.
This pattern can be traced back to early January, when the U.S. swiftly moved against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on a Saturday. Approximately eight weeks later, again on a Saturday, the U.S. and Israel jointly launched a military strike against Iran.
Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, stated: "This past weekend was a perfect example of the latest round of this conflict. The fighting escalated on Friday night, but by Sunday night and the futures open, things had calmed down."
According to Dow Jones Market Data, the average Monday performance for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq during the second quarter of this year was significantly better than the average Monday performance over the past decade for the same period.
In contrast, the difference in Friday performance between the two periods was not significant. However, data shows that the price of the global benchmark Brent crude oil typically fell on Fridays during this year's second quarter, only to rise again on Mondays.
This data suggests that over the past three months, investors who sold stocks or oil due to market weakness heading into the weekend often faced price rebounds on Monday.
Market Focus Shifts from Oil Prices to Tech Stocks
In late April, during an interview with CNBC, Trump stated that he expected international oil prices to surge to $200 per barrel and U.S. stocks to plunge 20% after the government "did a little something"—referring to strikes against Iran.
However, the actual market movement did not bear out this prediction. According to Dow Jones Market Data, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are up 8.7% and 11.1% year-to-date, respectively, on track for their best first-half performance since 2024.
On a Sunday evening in mid-June, Trump announced via social media that the U.S. and Iran had reached a near-term peace agreement. This news propelled stock index futures sharply higher, while U.S. crude oil prices fell to around $80 per barrel. Trump stated at the time that this preliminary agreement was crucial to avoiding a market crash akin to 1929.
Currently, both U.S. crude and global Brent crude prices have retreated to around $70 per barrel, close to pre-conflict levels, and market focus has gradually shifted away from oil and the Strait of Hormuz to other areas.
Chris Galipeau, Chief Market Strategist at the Franklin Templeton Institute, said: "The stock market has stopped caring." He believes that as oil prices have fallen and the market has grown increasingly "news-weary" of reports about a lasting peace deal, the energy factor's influence on equities is waning.
Galipeau noted that investors are now more focused on the dramatic swings in the semiconductor sector. This sector has become the new tech leader in the current bull market, while the market is also reassessing which companies among the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants, which are investing heavily in AI infrastructure, will ultimately benefit.
He stated: "You see the pendulum swinging wildly," adding that the best time to buy chip stocks was eight months ago.
Separate from market movements, U.S. regulators and several elected officials continue to closely monitor suspicious trading activity in global oil futures markets since the onset of the U.S.-Iran conflict.
In response to inquiries about these phenomena, a White House spokesperson stated that the "real trend" is that the policies of the Trump administration continue to drive U.S. stock markets higher.
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