On May 6th, from the Asian session to the early European session, international gold prices exhibited a volatile upward trend, forming a "V-shaped reversal" pattern. Opening at $4560.58 per ounce, the price briefly dipped to an intraday low of $4546.27 before stabilizing and initiating a unilateral rally, reaching a high of $4625.13 per ounce.
From an hourly chart perspective, after breaking below the $4550 per ounce support level, the decline did not trigger panic selling. Instead, clear buying interest emerged within the $4545-$4550 range. The MACD indicator formed a golden cross at a low level, and trading volume gradually increased alongside the price recovery, indicating that this rally was driven by substantial capital inflows rather than short-term speculation. On the 4-hour chart, the price successfully broke through the resistance of the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, with the moving average system showing signs of turning upward. The Bollinger Band expanded after a period of contraction, with the upper band resistance shifting to $4652 per ounce, suggesting short-term bullish momentum is dominant.
Analyzing technical indicators, the weekly MACD shows its red column continuously shortening, and the KDJ indicator, after forming a death cross near the 50 level, shows a potential downward trend, indicating some weakening in medium-term bullish momentum. However, strong support exists in the $4400-$4500 per ounce range. This level represents both the average purchase cost for central bank buying in the first quarter and the bottom area of a previous consolidation platform, which has held firm despite multiple tests. The $4650-$4740 per ounce range above constitutes a zone of dense trading activity with significant trapped positions; a decisive breakout would likely require a major positive catalyst.
In the short term, international gold is expected to remain influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, with a high probability of continued consolidation within the $4400-$4650 per ounce range. A successful break above the $4650 per ounce level could open the path towards testing $4743 per ounce. Conversely, a break below the $4400 per ounce support could lead to a further decline towards $4300 per ounce.
Overall, the short-term gold trend leans bullish, but this does not signify a full trend reversal. The strategy suggests waiting for the rebound to conclude before considering short positions. For intraday trading, an approach of buying on dips first, followed by selling on rallies, is recommended.
Trading Strategy: Consider aggressive long positions between $4620-$4625, with a stop loss at $4609, targeting $4650. A break above this level could see a move towards $4700. Focus on the strength of a potential secondary rise during the European session before assessing short-selling opportunities.
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