Throughout the year, the price of gold has experienced significant initial surges, followed by periods of high volatility, and is currently consolidating within a range.
A 20th-anniversary industry report from Incrementum AG states that gold's price movements align with its fundamental role as an asset. Amid shifts in the global economic landscape, gold's value as a monetary asset continues to become more prominent. Supported by factors including geopolitical fragmentation, ongoing dedollarization, and high debt levels, the foundation for a long-term bull market in gold remains solid. The price trend is steadily upward, and short-term fluctuations will not alter the medium- to long-term uptrend, with considerable potential for further gains.
The report, titled "In Gold We Trust," is co-authored by Ronald-Peter Stöferle and Mark Valek. The authors argue that gold's recent record highs are not the result of speculative froth but a necessary trend driven by multiple macroeconomic factors, marking gold's return to the monetary system. Geopolitical tensions, accelerated global dedollarization, persistent inflation volatility, and declining confidence in fiat currencies collectively contribute to a revaluation of gold.
The report suggests the current fiat currency system is showing signs of strain, and gold is re-emerging as a stabilizing anchor for global finance. Gold achieved a 64.4% gain in 2025, its best annual performance since 1979. In January 2026, the price reached a new record of $5,595 per ounce. Compared to the industry landscape two decades ago, when the initial report was just 20 pages and gold traded around $670 per ounce, the current report exceeds 400 pages, and the gold price has surged over sixfold, reflecting a significant expansion in the market's influence.
The firm asserts that gold's multi-year bull market is far from over. The report notes that the "Golden 2020s" forecast has been fully realized, with the U.S. dollar-denominated gold price rising 165% since then. The market is currently in a phase characterized by widespread participation from retail investors, which typically represents the most active and prolonged period of a bull cycle. Strong fundamentals provide solid support for further price appreciation.
Based on evolving market conditions, the firm has raised its long-term price target. The 2030 target of $4,800 per ounce set in 2020 was achieved well ahead of schedule. The authors now project that, under a high-inflation scenario, the gold price could reach $8,900 per ounce by the end of 2030. If the process of gold's remonetization accelerates further, even higher price levels are possible.
As the U.S.-led global order undergoes adjustment and the monetary landscape is reshaped, gold's attributes as a neutral reserve asset are gaining increased attention. Central banks have been consistent net buyers, purchasing 863 tonnes in 2025, following three consecutive years of purchases exceeding 1,000 tonnes annually, indicating robust official sector demand.
Discussions about revaluing U.S. gold reserves are increasing. The U.S. continues to value its official gold holdings at the statutory price of $42.22 per ounce, a stark contrast to the current market price near $4,600. The authors state that revaluation is no longer a theoretical exercise but is gradually becoming a plausible reality.
From an asset allocation perspective, gold remains under-allocated globally. Private gold holdings constitute only about 2.7% of global financial assets, indicating ample room for increased institutional allocation without signs of excessive crowding in the market.
Looking ahead, the primary driver of gold demand is expected to shift gradually from central banks to various investor groups. Global debt reached a new high of $348 trillion at the end of 2025, with U.S. debt surpassing $39 trillion this year. High debt levels are seen as a core long-term driver supporting gold prices.
The perceived "risk-free" status of traditional government bonds continues to erode, with real yields (adjusted for inflation) persistently negative. This is driving investors away from conventional asset classes toward safe-haven stores of value like gold. Multiple headwinds for credit-based assets further enhance gold's allocation appeal.
The firm cautions that while the medium- to long-term uptrend for gold is clear, the path will not be smooth, and price volatility will be a constant feature. Analysts suggest short-term prices will enter a consolidation phase, followed by a steady medium-term rise, with gold ultimately reclaiming a central position in the monetary system. This early summer, gold is likely to trade in a range between $4,500 and $4,950 per ounce.
Following a significant correction earlier this year, and considering factors like rising U.S. Treasury yields and tightening liquidity, short-term price pressures may persist. However, industry views suggest any short-term pullback represents a healthy correction and a potential buying opportunity for investors.
As of 9:41 AM Beijing Time on May 22, spot gold was trading at $4,523.98 per ounce.
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