The Ministry of Commerce announced on December 31, 2025, that it has ruled a surge in imported beef quantities has caused serious injury to China's domestic industry, with a causal link established between the two. Consequently, it decided to implement safeguard measures on imported beef for a period of three years, effective from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2028. Initiated on December 27, 2024, following an application from the domestic industry, the safeguard investigation into imported beef lasted one year and was extended twice, making it the largest import investigation case by value in China's history to date. The final ruling and measures have now been implemented, raising the question: what signals does this send?
Signal One: Activating the Trade "Safety Valve" to Relieve Industry Distress. "Over 30 yuan per jin, a bit higher than the lowest point, but still much cheaper compared to the previous price of forty or fifty yuan per jin," remarked a beef vendor at a farmers' market in Beijing's Fengtai District. Data from the National Development and Reform Commission's Price Monitoring Center showed that from early November 2022 to mid-March 2025, the average retail price of beef in 36 large and medium-sized cities continued to decline, dropping to 36.82 yuan per jin by March 19, 2025, hitting a near six-year low. The falling beef prices transmitted to the production end, putting pressure on the domestic cattle industry. "The money from selling cattle just covers the cost of feeding them; we've had to continuously reduce our herd size. At its peak, the company had over 7,000 breeding cows, but now there are only a few hundred left," said the head of a livestock enterprise in Chifeng. The reason beef prices are no longer "bullish" is partly due to a sharp increase in imports. In recent years, growing demand for protein-rich beef has driven growth in both domestic farming and foreign imports, with imported beef expanding rapidly due to its cost advantage. According to the Ministry of Commerce's investigation, China's beef imports have grown sharply in recent years, increasing by 73.2% in 2024 compared to 2019, with import prices significantly lower than domestic market prices. From 2019 to the first half of 2024, the market share of imported beef rose from 20% to around 30%. "Imported beef initially served a supplementary role, but the quantity has surged in recent years, substantially squeezing the domestic industry's market share, leading to a cliff-like drop in domestic prices and widespread losses across the sector," said Sha Yusheng, Secretary-General of the China Animal Agriculture Association. From the consumer's perspective, are lower beef prices always better? Not necessarily! "Losses have led to the slaughter of a large number of breeding cows. A cow produces one calf per pregnancy, and without 4 to 5 years, it's difficult to recover the herd," Sha Yusheng stated. If beef prices remain low, profits across the industrial chain are severely squeezed, potentially leading to a vicious cycle of selling at low prices, reducing production capacity, and future supply shortages, ultimately threatening the security of the industrial chain and negatively impacting consumers. Against this backdrop, the industry has been eagerly awaiting the implementation of safeguard measures. Safeguard measures are one of the trade remedy tools permitted by the World Trade Organization (WTO). Shi Xiaoli, Director of the WTO Legal Research Center at China University of Political Science and Law, explained that WTO rules allow members to implement safeguard measures on imported products when a surge in imports causes or threatens to cause serious injury to the relevant domestic industry. An official from the Department of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs stated that the introduction of safeguard measures is conducive to scientifically regulating the scale and pace of imports, buying valuable buffer time for the domestic industry.
Signal Two: Balancing Various Interests with Restrained and Prudent Measures. A spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce stated that the safeguard measures on imported beef aim to help the domestic industry overcome difficulties temporarily, not to restrict normal beef trade. The Chinese market remains open, and there is broad scope for cooperation in beef trade with partner countries. "This safeguard measure is a necessary step for China to protect its industrial security," said Julio Scayola, President of Uruguay's Instituto Nacional de Carnes (INAC), who participated in the case's hearing. He noted that China's investigation was fully compliant with WTO rules, the hearing process was very open and transparent, and it adequately addressed concerns raised by Uruguay and other countries. It is noteworthy that, to avoid excessive impact on normal trade and significant market fluctuations, China did not implement the measures in the form of tariff hikes. Instead, it adopted a more pragmatic approach using country-specific quotas and tariffs applied to imports exceeding those quotas, thereby moderately controlling import volumes. "The investigating authority used the average import volume from the most recent three years of the investigation period to determine the quota quantity. Separate quotas were set for major exporting countries based on their share of beef exports to China. Imports within the quota are not subject to additional tariffs; only imports outside the quota are taxed. Furthermore, the three-year implementation period for these safeguard measures further demonstrates a restrained and prudent attitude towards applying such measures on imported goods," Shi Xiaoli explained. It is understood that China has always been cautious in implementing safeguard measures. In the over 20 years since joining the WTO, China has only initiated safeguard investigations and taken measures on imported steel products and sugar; this case marks the third such instance.
Signal Three: Promoting Domestic Industry Upgrade and Fostering Positive Domestic-Foreign Interaction. The recent Central Rural Work Conference proposed maintaining prices of important agricultural products like grain at reasonable levels to promote stable increases in farmers' incomes and to continuously consolidate and expand the achievements in poverty alleviation. Implementing safeguard measures on imported beef is merely a temporary expedient, not a long-term solution. Promoting the sustainable development of the beef cattle industry still requires a holistic approach that balances internal and external factors, addresses both symptoms and root causes, and employs multi-dimensional efforts. Wang Shuangzheng, Director of the Agricultural Product Price Monitoring Office at the National Development and Reform Commission's Price Monitoring Center, said that in the next phase, efforts should focus on promoting cost reduction, quality improvement, and efficiency enhancement in beef cattle farming. This includes applying digital and intelligent technologies according to local conditions, developing appropriately scaled and standardized breeding operations, and continuously improving the comprehensive production capacity and market competitiveness of the beef cattle industry. The goal is to achieve differentiated complementarity and positive interaction between domestic beef cattle production and imported beef. "China's implementation of safeguard measures will not affect cooperation between Uruguay and China. I am very optimistic about the Chinese consumer market; Uruguayan high-quality beef will always have a place," said Julio Scayola. He added that cooperation between Uruguay and China extends beyond beef import and export trade to include diverse collaborations such as joint breeding programs and demonstration farm construction. An official from the Department of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs stated that the Ministry supports the safeguard measures on imported beef to appropriately control the import scale, address the temporary difficulties faced by the domestic industry, and buy time and space for the domestic industry's recovery, development, and quality improvement. The Ministry will continue its work on relieving industry distress and, as always, strengthen industrial exchanges and cooperation with relevant countries. "As the supportive policies and measures for the beef cattle industry gradually take effect and the safeguard measures on imported beef are implemented, it is expected that beef import volumes may decrease in 2026, while consumer demand for beef rises, thereby driving a reasonable rebound in beef prices," Wang Shuangzheng predicted.
Comments