EB SECURITIES released a research report stating that in terms of cost structure, the rocket body structure and engines form the core hardware components. The industry is trending toward reusability, cost reduction, and environmental sustainability, with liquid oxygen-methane engines emerging as the next-generation focal technology. Significant progress has been made domestically. The sustained growth in commercial space launch demand, coupled with breakthroughs in core technologies like reusability and liquid oxygen-methane propulsion, is expected to drive continuous improvement in the launch vehicle industry's outlook. Key insights from EB SECURITIES are as follows:
Launch vehicles, as multi-stage aerospace transport systems, primarily serve spacecraft orbital insertion needs. Their performance is determined by the coordination of multiple subsystems, including the rocket body structure, propulsion system, guidance and control system, and safety self-destruct mechanism. Typically comprising 2–4 stages, the final stage houses the instrument compartment and payload, with an external fairing. Classification by critical dimensions includes: - **Stages**: Multi-stage designs dominate due to single-stage limitations in achieving cosmic velocity. - **Propellants**: Solid, liquid, or hybrid (e.g., Long March 1’s first two liquid stages and third solid stage). - **Structural configurations**: Series, parallel (strap-on), or hybrid arrangements. - **Usage modes**: Expendable, partially reusable, or fully reusable. Key performance metrics encompass payload capacity (orbital insertion mass), insertion accuracy (orbital parameter deviation), reliability (mission success probability), and launch cost.
Global mainstream models cover multiple orbits: - **Domestic**: Long March 2C (two-stage N2O4/UDMH, LEO 4.0t), Long March 5 (two-and-a-half-stage LOX/kerosene, LEO 25t, GTO 14t), Zhuque-2 (two-stage LOX/methane, LEO 4.0t). - **International**: Falcon 9 (two-stage LOX/kerosene, LEO 22.8t), Falcon Heavy (two-and-a-half-stage series-parallel, LEO 63.8t), alongside Russia’s Proton-M and Europe’s Vega-C, each tailored for specific scenarios.
Three core systems—structure, control, and propulsion—define rocket performance, with engines being pivotal for cost and capability: - **Structural systems** act as the "skeleton," maintaining form, integrating subsystems, and withstanding external forces. Key components include payload fairings and propellant tanks (e.g., Falcon 9’s two-piece carbon-fiber/aluminum-honeycomb fairing and unified tank design for cost efficiency). - **Cost distribution**: First-stage engines (54.3%) and body structure (23.5%); second-stage engines (28.6%) and body structure (29.5%), with minimal propellant contribution (0.7% and 0.2%, respectively). - **Control systems** ensure trajectory stability via guidance (parameter measurement and shutdown control for orbital precision), attitude control (angular rate stabilization), and power-sequence management. - **Propulsion systems** divide into: - **Solid motors**: Simple structure, rapid deployment (24-hour prep), multi-year storage, but lower specific impulse (2,000–3,000 N·s/kg), suited for small satellites (e.g., Jielong-3’s 2.65m motor with 71t propellant and 200t thrust). - **Liquid engines**: Higher specific impulse (2,500–4,600 N·s/kg), superior payload capacity, and controllability, categorized by LOX/LH2 (e.g., YF-77), LOX/kerosene (e.g., YF-100, a mainstay for space propulsion), and LOX/methane. Feed systems include low-thrust pressure-fed (attitude control) and high-thrust pump-fed (main engines).
Industry trends emphasize reusability, affordability, and eco-friendliness, positioning LOX/methane engines as the next-gen frontier: - **Reusability** (e.g., Falcon 9’s first-stage recovery) slashes launch costs, while propellants shift toward non-toxic alternatives (replacing traditional N2O4/UDMH). - **LOX/methane engines** excel in cooling efficiency, reduced coking, ease of maintenance, cost-effectiveness (methane at 1/30th LH2 price), and long-term space storage, aligning with reuse needs. Global R&D accelerates: - **International**: SpaceX’s Raptor (full-flow staged combustion, 2,000kN sea-level thrust, 3,273m/s ISP), Blue Origin’s BE-4 (oxygen-rich staged combustion, 2,400kN), and Europe’s Prometheus (100t-class thrust). - **Domestic progress**: 10t-class "Mingfeng-1," "Tianque-11" (vacuum ISP 333s), and "Jiaodian-1" (40%–105% thrust variability) completed hot-fire tests; 80t-class "Tianque-12" and "Longyun" passed trials, while "Mingfeng-2" entered assembly, reflecting advancing maturity.
**Risks**: Potential delays in core engine/structural R&D; demand volatility from LEO satellite mission adjustments; supply chain instability for critical composites and precision components.
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