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On October 15, the U.S. September CPI data was released. The inflation reading came in above expectations, reinforcing in the short term the expectation that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates, which was the trigger for the rapid decline in gold prices earlier. However, after the bearish news landed, gold prices "sold the fact," with buying interest emerging near 4073, producing a bottoming-out and rebound. Going forward, the market\'s main focus will continue to be on Fed officials\' speeches and subsequent employment data such as non-farm payrolls, used to judge the pace of Fed rate cuts. In addition, continued central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks continue to provide support for the bottom of gold prices, which is also an important reason why gold prices did not directly break below the previous low near 4066. The current market is a technical repair after bearish news was fully priced in, and does not represent the arrival of a bullish trend. The height of the rebound depends on whether the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields continue to weaken. Before there is a clear turn in fundamentals, it should first be defined as a rebound within a downtrend.
On the technical side, after yesterday\'s CPI data landed, gold prices dipped, touching a low of 4073, very close to the previous low of 4066. After bottoming, a rebound repair followed. Today in the Asian session, the rebound continued, with a gain of 0.71%. On the daily chart\'s larger structure, the main downtrend from the high of 4696 has not reversed. This round belongs to a second bottoming and stabilization rebound after a major decline. Moving average system: the 5-day moving average is at 4153 and the 10-day moving average is at 4145. The current price is running below the short-term moving averages, which are forming resistance; the medium- to long-term 60-day moving average at 4294 and 100-day moving average at 4245 still form strong pressure above. The Bollinger Band channel is pointing downward, with the upper band at 4200 and the lower band at 4030, while the middle band at 4137 is close to the current price. Gold prices have just reached the Bollinger middle band to test resistance. On the daily MACD, both lines are running below the zero axis, with negative values narrowing slightly and green bars shortening. Bearish momentum has weakened compared with previous days, but an effective golden cross has not yet formed. It can only be defined as a rebound repair after an oversold condition, and the trend cannot be directly judged as reversed. The core bull-bear dividing line on the daily chart is the double-bottom support zone of 4066-4073. As long as this bottom range is not effectively broken below, there will continue to be opportunities for consolidation and repair.
The 4-hour structure is very clear. After CPI bearish pressure pushed gold prices rapidly down to the low of 4073, they stopped falling and staged a V-shaped reversal repair, with lows rising. The Bollinger Bands shifted from opening downward earlier to narrowing and flattening, with the lower band at 4096 forming strong support and the upper band at 4216 as resistance above. The current price is under pressure below the Bollinger middle band at 4156. In terms of moving averages, the 5-period and 10-period moving averages are tangled, showing obvious short-term consolidation characteristics; the 60-period and 100-period moving averages suppress above. On the 4-hour MACD, the lines have moved rapidly upward from low levels and are approaching the zero axis, while green bars continue to shrink. Bullish rebound momentum is gradually being released, but it has not yet stood above the zero axis, indicating that this round is only a rebound and has not yet entered a bullish-dominated uptrend. The short-term strength dividing line is at 4153. If price stabilizes above this level, rebound space will open further; if it remains under pressure there, the rebound may easily pull back again to test lower support.
On the 1-hour chart, this rebound started from the low of 4073. The 0.382 level is 4135, the 0.5 level is 4144, and the 0.618 level is 4161. The current price is exactly stuck at the 0.382 retracement level, which is the first short-term resistance. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with the range contracting. The upper band is 4166 and the lower band is 4116, with price fluctuating near the Bollinger middle band. The short-term 5-hour and 10-hour moving averages are glued together, while the 60-hour moving average at 4150 and the 100-hour moving average at 4163 form layered pressure above. On the 1-hour MACD, a golden cross has formed from low levels and moved upward. After a small increase in red bars, momentum has slowed somewhat, showing signs of short-term bullish momentum exhaustion. Price is meeting resistance and consolidating at the 0.382 level. It needs to be observed whether it can break through. If it breaks upward, look toward the 0.5 and 0.618 resistance levels; if it comes under pressure and pulls back, it will retest lower support.
Overall view: the daily downtrend remains unchanged, and the market is in a rebound repair stage after a second bottoming. The 4-hour chart shows bottoming and stabilization, with bearish momentum weakening and consolidation leaning toward repair. The short-term timeframes have entered a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The overall pattern is a major bearish trend with a short-term oversold rebound. Key focus should be on whether the double-bottom support at 4066-4073 can hold. Once 4066 is effectively broken below, the double-bottom structure will be damaged and a new round of declines will begin. Short-term resistance above is concentrated in the 4135-4153 area. If the rebound continues, it will test 4162 upward, and only after stabilizing there will there be a chance to challenge the previous high of 4217.
Trading suggestions: Short-term short positions: On a rebound into the 4145-4153 resistance zone, one may try light short positions, with a stop loss placed above 4163, first targeting support near 4116, then reducing positions while keeping some exposure toward 4096. Short-term long positions: On a pullback into the 4096-4116 support zone, one may try light long positions, with a stop loss placed below 4073, targeting the 4135-4145 resistance, taking profits in batches upon reaching the resistance band, and not chasing highs.
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