Gold's Over 30% Pullback Reshapes the Market: Recycling Cools, Buying Heats Up, and Trades Get Lighter

Deep News11-07 18:10

Retail platform data shows that sharp swings in the gold price have driven a "reverse relay" across both the recycling and retail ends of the market.

Since the start of 2026, gold prices have continued to fluctuate. On January 29 this year, London spot gold approached US$5,600 per ounce during intraday trading, setting a new record high. After that, gold prices trended downward with volatility, falling 6.8% in October alone and posting a maximum drawdown of more than 30% from the peak.

In consumer-facing trading, gold price volatility has driven a "reverse relay" between recycling and retail: when prices rise, demand to cash in is released in a concentrated way, while when prices fall, buying demand clearly picks up.

At the February peak in gold prices, the World Gold Council noted in its monthly commentary that the recent rapid price swings had stimulated simultaneous activity in both bar purchases and gold recycling, while more and more consumers chose to trade in old gold jewelry for new products through "old-for-new" exchanges.

Data from the second-hand platform Zhuanzhuan shows that in January, when gold prices were at their peak, gold recycling transactions on the platform reached their most active level of the year; as prices fell from the high, recycling demand contracted month by month, dropping to its lowest level of the year in July during the bottoming phase: order volume fell 44% compared with January.

In contrast to the recycling end, buying demand is stronger during periods of falling prices. The China Gold Market Demand Trends Report shows that in the third quarter of 2026, gold jewelry consumption rose 30% quarter on quarter on a seasonal basis to 66 tonnes.

Zhuanzhuan data shows that in October, when gold prices plunged 6.8%, retail orders rose 26% month on month, setting a new single-month high for the year.

On November 6, a Yicai reporter visited several jewelry stores. A salesperson at Chow Sang Sang told Yicai that with gold prices hitting a low for the year in October, recent sales had clearly increased. The salesperson said that because gold prices warmed up somewhat in early November, consumers worried that prices would rise further and chose to "buy quickly."

A salesperson at another jewelry store, Chow Tai Fook, told Yicai that gold sales had recently risen, adding that "although prices have climbed somewhat in recent days compared with October, they are still at a low point compared with July."

As for recycling, the salesperson said it mainly depends on the customer's purchase price: "If they bought four or five years ago, the current recycling price is still considerable."

Current gold prices have also affected consumption habits and retailers' planning. The 2026 China Gold Jewelry Retail Market Insights published by the World Gold Council shows that, facing high gold prices and pressure in the macro environment, retailers continue to adjust product strategies, with cost-effectiveness still the core consideration. More than 40% of retailers plan to increase the share of stock for products under 5 grams; 47% intend to expand supply of products in the 5–10 gram range.

Overall, the share of retailers favoring lightweight products under 10 grams has risen significantly from the 60% level in 2025, highlighting the industry's continued shift toward lightweight products.

Zhuanzhuan data shows that transactions in both directions are becoming "lighter." On the recycling end, the average weight per transaction fell from 18.84 grams in January to 13.82 grams in October, a decline of 26.6%; on the retail end, the average weight per order fell from 11.11 grams in January to 6.74 grams in October, a decline of 39.3%.

A relevant person told the reporter that the drop in gram weight is not because people "can't afford it," but because "there are more participants." At the same time, channels such as stores, door-to-door service and mail-in continue to expand into lower-tier markets, bringing users in lower-tier markets and small amounts of old jewelry—groups that previously would not have made a special trip to a store—into the recycling system, diluting the average transaction value.

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