Jefferies released a research note indicating that West China Cement (02233) has forecasted its 2025 net profit to be between 833 million and 896 million yuan. This announcement contributed to a more than 25% decline in the company's share price on the day. Based on calculations, the net profit for the second half of the year is projected to be only 85 million to 148 million yuan, significantly below market expectations. The target price has been reduced from HK$4.00 to HK$3.10, while maintaining a "Buy" rating. The firm believes the underperformance is primarily due to one-off factors, the impact of which is not expected to recur in 2026. The company reported overseas sales volume of approximately 8 million tonnes last year, remaining flat compared to the first half but doubling year-on-year, indicating no fundamental weakening of demand in its key African markets. Jefferies maintains that the growth prospects for West China Cement in African markets remain intact. It is believed that, driven by volume recovery, growth in high-margin overseas operations, and the elimination of domestic profit drags, the sharp share price decline presents an investment opportunity ahead of an expected earnings recovery in 2026.
Comments