Amidst a "chaotic era," the security of global resource supply faces significant threats, prompting nations and various production sectors to increase their desired inventory levels to mitigate potential supply disruptions. Metals applicable to the military industry are particularly critical. Since the outbreak of the US-Iran-Israel conflict, substantial amounts of weapons and ammunition have been consumed. Consequently, restocking by the US, Israel, and Iran, alongside security-driven procurement by other countries, is expected to significantly drive up demand for corresponding strategic metals. Furthermore, the military sector is less sensitive to price fluctuations, allowing prices to fully benefit from this increased demand.
Tungsten: Tungsten concentrate experienced a short-term price correction, while the price gap between domestic and international markets continues to widen. This week, the price of black tungsten concentrate was 928,000 yuan per ton (down 3.1% week-over-week), and the price of Ammonium Paratungstate (APT) was 1.43 million yuan per ton (down 1.1% week-over-week). The European APT price was quoted at $2,800-$3,190 per ton unit (equivalent to 1.693-1.929 million yuan per ton), representing a 225.5% increase since the start of the year, highlighting the growing disparity between domestic and international prices. After surpassing the one million yuan mark, tungsten concentrate encountered significant resistance to further price increases. The less concentrated scrap tungsten market softened first, followed by several failed tenders for low-grade tungsten concentrate, leading to the subsequent price decline. Overseas, however, prices have risen against the trend, driven by both wartime demand and insufficient supply, creating the current price divergence. From an annual supply-demand balance perspective, three overseas tungsten concentrate projects are expected to contribute incremental supply this year: Jiachen International's Bakuta mine is projected to increase output by 3,000 tons, EQR by 1,000 tons, and ALM's Sandong mine by 1,000 tons, providing a 2% supply increase. Given that demand growth has consistently been between 4%-5% in recent years, the tungsten concentrate market remains relatively tight.
Molybdenum: According to Antaike, the price of molybdenum concentrate (45%-50%) this week was 4,535 yuan per ton unit, up 2.0% week-over-week. According to ILZSG, total ferromolybdenum steel tender volume for March was approximately 16,400 tons, and the total for Q1 2026 reached 41,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. Molybdenum is a core strategic high-temperature metal in the military sector, used in aircraft engines, tanks, ships, armor-piercing ammunition, and other areas. The development of global mid-to-high-end manufacturing and the military industry will drive steady growth in molybdenum demand.
Antimony: This week, Mysteel's quote for #2 low-bismuth antimony ingot was 160,000 yuan per ton, showing a slight downward trend. Fastmarkets quoted #2 antimony ingot at $27,000-$28,200 per ton, with overseas prices continuing to rise recently. Antimony is a key strategic metal in the military sector, with core applications including ammunition manufacturing, weapon equipment strengthening (e.g., gun barrels, cannon barrels), infrared guidance (indium antimonide), and flame-retardant protection (e.g., military uniforms, tents, fireproof layers for equipment). Military demand is expected to positively impact the antimony market.
Potential risks include: 1. A severe global economic recession leading to a sharp contraction in consumption. The World Bank, in its latest Global Economic Prospects report, lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.3% from the 2.7% projected in January, with growth forecasts downgraded for nearly 70% of economies. The World Bank indicated that global growth is slowing due to trade barriers and an uncertain global policy environment. Compared to the prospect of a "soft landing" six months ago, the global economy is now experiencing renewed turbulence. Failure to correct course swiftly could significantly harm living standards. Global economic data is already showing a downward trend; a deep recession would have a substantial negative impact on non-ferrous metal consumption. 2. Uncontrolled US inflation leading to more aggressive-than-expected Federal Reserve monetary tightening, with a strong US dollar suppressing prices of risk assets. If the US fails to control inflation effectively, leading to sustained interest rate hikes. The Fed has already implemented significant consecutive rate increases, but sticky services inflation, particularly in rents and wages, is hindering its decline. Maintaining a high intensity of interest rate hikes by the Fed would be unfavorable for US dollar-denominated non-ferrous metals. 3. Weaker-than-expected consumption growth in China's new energy sector and persistently weak consumption in the property sector. Although policies on the property sales side have been relaxed to varying degrees, weak homebuyer sentiment and unresolved debt risks among property developers pose challenges. If sales show no sustained improvement, completion phases in the property sector could face a risk of sharp deceleration, adversely affecting consumption of certain domestic non-ferrous metals.
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