On Thursday, June 4th, the international gold price opened at $4,434.92, reached a high of $4,515.43, touched a low of $4,423.31, and closed at $4,474.51. The daily range was $92.12, representing a gain of $40.96 or 0.92%, with the daily candlestick forming a small bullish pattern.
Since encountering resistance at the $4,600 level last week, the price of gold has generally continued to fluctuate around $4,500, failing to achieve a decisive breakout for the time being.
Examining the Fundamentals
Regarding economic data, the US labor market is showing signs of marginal weakening. Data released on Thursday indicated that initial jobless claims for the week ending May 30th rose to 225,000, exceeding both forecasts and the prior week's figure; the four-week moving average also increased. Continuing claims were marginally below expectations. Concurrently, first-quarter non-farm productivity was revised down to an annualized rate of 0.3%, marking the slowest growth pace since the first quarter of 2025. Unit labor costs were revised up to a 1.8% increase, which was lower than both the initial estimate and market expectations. Overall, the combination of a cooling labor market and slowing productivity growth suggests a potential loosening in the previously robust labor market conditions. Against the backdrop of heightened expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates, the weaker economic data provided a temporary respite for gold prices, contributing to a brief rally.
On the geopolitical front, although Lebanon and Israel have agreed to a conditional ceasefire, the commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force, Esmail Qaani, stated that Israel must withdraw to its pre-conflict positions. Overall, the complexity and uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations have increased significantly. Previous market optimism regarding an imminent "memorandum of understanding" is now being challenged, potentially leading to a renewed rise in geopolitical risk premiums, which could support gold prices in the short term.
In summary, the market consensus currently holds that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in the near term. Ahead of the release of the May non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate data, gold is expected to remain confined to a lower-range consolidation pattern, making a sustained one-directional trend unlikely. Patience is advised while awaiting guidance from the upcoming data releases.
Technical Analysis Perspective
From a technical standpoint this week, the gold price has been capped by the 5-week moving average around $4,554, while also finding support from the 40-week moving average near $4,440. The metal has been confined to a narrow trading range. Although prices briefly dipped below support, they quickly recovered, indicating a lack of clear directional bias. The consolidation phase is likely to persist.
On the daily chart, following the mid-May retreat from a high near $4,773, the price is currently trading within a dynamic descending channel formed by the Bollinger Band's middle and lower bands (currently positioned between approximately $4,556 and $4,370). Price action this week has been characterized by minor fluctuations. Currently, the 5-day and 10-day moving averages are converging in the $4,483-$4,495 zone, reinforcing the $4,500 level as a key intraday resistance point. Support is seen around the $4,400 level and slightly below.
Overall Assessment
The current price action suggests a weak, range-bound environment for gold. The core intraday range is expected to hold between $4,400 and $4,500. A rally towards the upper boundary of this range warrants caution for a potential pullback. Conversely, a decisive break below the lower boundary should be watched closely for potential oversold rebound opportunities.
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