On April 17th, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell last week, indicating that layoffs remain at a limited level. Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday showed that initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 decreased by 11,000 to 207,000, marking the largest weekly decline since February. This figure was below market expectations of 215,000 and the previous week's revised figure of 218,000. Additionally, the number of continuing claims for the week ending April 4 was 1.818 million, higher than the market forecast of 1.81 million and the prior week's revised reading of 1.787 million. The four-week moving average for initial claims, for the week ending April 11, was 209,800, compared to the previous week's revised average of 209,300. It is worth noting that initial claims data can be volatile during holiday periods, and the latest data released on Thursday covered the Easter holiday, which may have introduced some distortion. Economist Eliza Winger stated, "Despite weekly fluctuations, initial jobless claims continue to signal stability in the labor market."
Furthermore, New York Fed President John Williams expressed concerns about the impact of the Middle East conflict on the U.S. economy, noting that it has already begun to show signs of pushing up prices and dampening growth. Speaking to bankers in his district on Thursday, Williams pointed out that the conflict has "increased" uncertainty in both national and local economic conditions. While he generally maintains confidence in sustained economic growth and a decline in inflation within the year, he also acknowledged that the Fed faces risks in achieving its dual mandate of "price stability" and "maximum employment." Williams stated, "If energy supply disruptions ease relatively quickly, energy prices should come down, and these effects could partially reverse later this year. However, the conflict could also trigger a significant supply shock, boosting inflation through higher intermediate costs and commodity prices while simultaneously restraining economic activity. These effects are already beginning to appear."
Data to be watched today include the Eurozone's seasonally adjusted trade balance for February and Canada's housing starts for March.
Gold / USD Gold traded in a narrow range yesterday, closing slightly lower. The spot price is currently trading around $2,395. The primary factor pressuring gold was a stabilization in the U.S. dollar index, which found support from short covering and positive economic data. Additionally, optimistic expectations for Middle East peace talks, which dampen inflation expectations, continued to weigh on gold. Today, focus is on resistance near $2,450, with support found around $2,350.
USD / JPY The USD/JPY pair edged higher in choppy trading yesterday, closing with modest gains. The pair is currently trading near 159.50. Support stemmed not only from some short covering but also from a rebound in the U.S. dollar index, which was buoyed by factors including solid economic data. Furthermore, expectations that the Bank of Japan will not raise interest rates in April also provided some support for the pair. Today, resistance is seen near 160.50, while support lies around 158.50.
USD / CAD The USD/CAD pair moved lower yesterday, hitting a fresh three-week low. The pair is currently trading around 1.3680. Persistent cooling expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes continued to pressure the pair. Additionally, rising crude oil prices, driven by ongoing concerns over the Middle East crisis, also contributed to the pair's weakness. However, the decline was limited by a stabilizing U.S. dollar index. Today, resistance is anticipated near 1.3750, with support around 1.3600.
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