US President Donald Trump stated Wednesday that the elevated energy prices driven by the conflict with Iran are unlikely to ease before the midterm elections, which are roughly two months away.
"After the election, oil prices will come down substantially," Trump told reporters at Joint Base Andrews prior to his departure for Texas to campaign for Republican candidates ahead of the midterm vote. When questioned about how he would explain to Americans the surge in oil costs to their highest levels since the war's early weeks, he responded, "I think it's very easy to explain to America. You just have to ask, 'Would you let Iran have a nuclear weapon?' The answer is no."
International benchmark Brent crude futures traded above $101 per barrel Wednesday for the first time since July, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures surpassed $96 per barrel intraday. Trump also reiterated his assertion that the war with Iran, now in its seventh month with no clear resolution in sight, would conclude "immediately after the election."
When pressed to elaborate on that prediction, Trump said, "They can't hold on much longer," echoing his repeated claims of victory throughout the conflict. However, he then suggested that Iran is seeking to influence the election outcome in a way that would be unfavorable to him. "They're desperate to influence the election so that we get a bunch of weak people in there who will leave them alone and let them have nuclear weapons," the president remarked.
These comments mark a rare acknowledgment from Trump that neither the war nor the resulting high fuel prices are likely to end in the near term. They also underscore how the prolonged conflict continues to weigh on Trump and the Republican Party during an election cycle dominated by concerns over inflation and affordability.
Throughout the war, Trump has claimed dozens of times that a peace deal with Tehran was imminent, only for those predictions to fall short. More recently, he appears to have shifted away from pursuing a diplomatic breakthrough, instead advocating for defeating Iran through the destruction of its military capabilities and economy. US military officials said Tuesday that their forces had destroyed ten Iranian oil tankers over the past week, while Iran's Revolutionary Guard claimed responsibility for attacks on tankers in the Persian Gulf.
"I would say these strikes are initiated by us," Trump said, adding, "You'll see more." On Wednesday, Trump also claimed that record-high gasoline prices would eventually drop below $2 per gallon, but not until after the early November midterm elections, suggesting at least eight more weeks before relief could arrive. "I think it's going to take a little longer than the midterms," he said, slightly softening his recent assurances on Truth Social that oil prices "will drop big" when the US wins the war. "It will all happen very quickly," he wrote.
However, GasBuddy fuel analyst Patrick De Haan expressed skepticism about Trump's latest prediction of post-midterm price declines. "I don't think there's any guarantee that happens at all," De Haan said on the X platform.
For investors seeking exposure to energy markets, the BlackRock Energy & Resources Trust (NYSE: BGR) and ELEMENTS Linked to the Rogers International Commodity Index - Energy Total Return (NYSE: RJN) are among the vehicles tracking commodity price movements.
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