On February 26, Beijing time, the lithium carbonate continuous main contract hit a daily limit increase, currently quoted at 185,000 yuan per ton. Zimbabwe has suspended exports of lithium concentrate and raw ore, a move intended to push mining companies to establish processing operations within the country. The Zimbabwean Minister of Mines stated on Wednesday that the export ban is effective immediately until further notice. African governments have been attempting to compel mining firms to refine minerals locally to secure greater economic benefits from their national resources. According to official data, Zimbabwe holds one of Africa's largest lithium reserves and is a major global producer, with estimated resources of 126 million tons. The Zimbabwean Minister of Mines indicated that the ban will only be lifted if miners comply with government requirements. Last year, the country stated it would ban lithium concentrate exports by 2027, as part of efforts to encourage foreign mining companies to develop local refining capabilities.
A recent report from the U.S. Geological Survey projects Zimbabwe's lithium mine production for 2025 to be 28,000 tons (calculated by lithium content), ranking second only to Argentina, China, and Chile. UBS believes the market has entered a third lithium price super-cycle, with a persistent supply-demand gap expected to support prices significantly above market consensus. UBS has sharply raised its spodumene price forecast for 2026 by 74% to $3,131 per ton and its lithium carbonate forecast to $26,000 per ton. This adjustment is based on the achievement of "triple parity" for electric vehicles and a surge in energy storage demand, with global demand projected to double to 3.4 million tons by 2030.
Hong Kong-listed companies related to lithium mining: - GANFENGLITHIUM (01772): The company holds a 50% controlling stake in the large-scale Goulamina spodumene project in Zimbabwe, which includes a supporting concentrator. While the primary output is concentrate, Ganfeng possesses strong global coordination capabilities and downstream conversion capacity. As a global lithium industry leader, Ganfeng has significant control over upstream resources. If its Zimbabwe project already has, or can quickly adapt to meet, the deep-processing capabilities required by the new regulations, it would directly benefit from a lithium price rebound driven by supply contraction. Furthermore, its substantial inventory and diversified sources (Australia, Argentina, etc.) can hedge against risks from any single region. - TIANQI LITHIUM (09696): Tianqi's core assets are in Australia (Greenbushes) and Chile (SQM), but it possesses strong global supply chain management capabilities. Tianqi has relatively little direct exposure in Zimbabwe itself and is primarily driven by the macro benefits of rising lithium prices. Zimbabwe's export ban will reduce global marginal supply, supporting lithium carbonate/lithium hydroxide prices, thereby improving Tianqi's profit outlook. - ZIJIN MINING (02899): As of 2025, Zijin Mining's lithium carbonate resources reached 18.7 million tons, ranking 10th globally in equivalent lithium carbonate production. According to its latest plans, Zijin aims for equivalent lithium carbonate production to reach 120,000 tons by 2026; this figure is projected to jump to between 270,000 and 320,000 tons by 2028.
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