On March 3, the A-share market experienced a pattern of rising initially before falling back. The Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassed its high from January earlier in the session, marking a new high not seen since July 2015—a peak for over ten years. However, it subsequently fluctuated downward, closing the day down 1.43%. The total trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 3 trillion yuan, an increase of nearly 100 billion yuan compared to the same time the previous day.
The oil and gas sector continued its strong performance, with China's three major state-owned oil companies collectively hitting the daily upward limit during the session. PetroChina reached a limit-up, achieving its highest level in nearly 17 years. The shipping and port sectors followed the upward trend, with companies like COSCO SHIPPING Development and COSCO SHIPPING Energy, among others, also hitting the daily limit. The coal sector saw gains, with Shaanxi Black Cat Carbon rising by the limit. Utilities, cross-border logistics, and crop farming sectors were among the top performers. Conversely, stocks related to silver, rare earths, and non-ferrous metals experienced collective declines.
Institutional analysts maintain that the medium-term positive trend for the market remains intact. China Merchants Securities noted that looking ahead to March, considering factors such as the National People's Congress trading period, the Iran-US conflict, the continued recovery of the Producer Price Index, the supportive effect of first-quarter fiscal expenditure on macro liquidity, and capital market conditions, they anticipate a more balanced growth-value style across the entire market.
Industrial Securities believes that in the short term, the escalation of the Iran-US situation will impact global risk appetite for equity assets and structurally reinforce the safe-haven and strategic value of resources such as oil, gas, and precious metals. As subsequent geopolitical shocks tend to ease, coupled with the domestic entry into a period of intensive policy deployment during the NPC meetings, risk appetite is expected to recover after the short-term impact, and the overall market is likely to return to a state primarily driven by domestic factors.
Soochow Securities indicated that during the NPC meetings, major market indices are highly likely to maintain stable fluctuations. Market attention to industrial policies is high, particularly regarding potential key directions for the 15th Five-Year Plan. If unexpected statements or catalysts emerge during the meetings, related themes are expected to receive positive feedback. Regarding allocation strategies for March, the AI and broader AI sector remain the medium to long-term main theme for the market, while cyclical varieties are also expected to see rotational performance opportunities. In terms of policy catalysts, the focus is on the structural highlights of the NPC meetings, primarily in two directions: expanding domestic demand and developing new quality productive forces.
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Market risks are present, and investment requires caution. This content does not constitute personal investment advice and does not account for individual users' specific investment objectives, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions herein suit their particular circumstances. Investments made based on this content are undertaken at one's own responsibility.
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