On May 15, the Hang Seng Index opened 0.01% higher, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.13%. In market performance, the semiconductor sector showed strength, with SMIC rising over 3% following its earnings report, and Hua Hong Semi gaining over 2%; some technology and internet stocks weakened.
Regarding the outlook for the Hong Kong stock market, Guosen Securities stated that as the country continues to introduce policies supporting new energy development, the profitability of new energy power generation is expected to gradually stabilize. According to a previous introduction by the National Energy Administration, 24 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) have issued or formulated supporting policies for direct green electricity trading, with 99 direct green electricity trading projects approved nationwide, corresponding to a total installed capacity of 340.5 gigawatts of new energy. On the other hand, the surge in power load driven by the large-scale application of AI, coupled with policy support, directly forms a dual benefit for the green electricity industry.
Citic Securities believes that for the Hong Kong stock market to form a truly sustainable index rally, it still needs to wait for more conditions to align. The second half of the year may present a beta opportunity at the index level for Hong Kong stocks. As investors further recognize the stability of the Chinese economy in the second half of the year, especially as the trend of nominal GDP recovery becomes clearer, and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut after mid-year under Chair Waller's tenure swing back, it is expected to catalyze a new round of upward momentum for the Hong Kong stock index.
Recently, the domestic computing power chain is experiencing a relative catch-up rally compared to the North American computing power chain, with the AI theme spreading within the computing power chain. Hong Kong-listed internet stocks, due to their inherent trading attributes related to domestic computing power, have a high positive correlation with the former. This indicates that within the AI theme, in addition to the spread from North American computing power to domestic computing power, the Hang Seng Tech Index is also one of the important main lines of diffusion. Furthermore, from the perspective of overseas mapping, cloud service providers represented by Hong Kong-listed internet stocks are also expected to be a direction for subsequent catch-up in the domestic AI market.
China Securities believes that as model parameters continue to expand, performance improves, ARR soars, and large model companies successively IPO, the list for the final round of large models is expected to be largely finalized. Large model ARR possesses strong explosive potential and significant growth space. The institution believes it is likely that by 2026, large model companies with ARR reaching around $200 billion will be seen.
China Merchants Securities believes that the total capital expenditure of global CSPs in 2026 is expected to be approximately $830 billion, driving a sustained increase in the prosperity of the AI industry chain. The supply-demand gap in the storage industry will continue until 2027. The trend of domestic storage capacity expansion is clear, the localization rate is increasing, equipment orders continue to be favorable, and materials are expected to achieve scaled growth after breaking through capacity bottlenecks.
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