SPY Rallied 13.5% From Its Lows, Fueled By Peak Inflation Hopes

ETF.com2022-08-11

The stock market was right: Bullish investors were vindicated after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Wednesday that consumer prices grew at a slower-than-expected pace in July.Leading up to ...

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Comments

BlitzBison
2022-08-11
BlitzBison
Ok
MrHuattt
2022-08-11
MrHuattt
Okay
T1368
2022-08-11
T1368
🚀🚀🚀
T1368
2022-08-11
T1368
🚀🚀🚀
Bluem
2022-08-11
Bluem
Nice
T202311701
2022-08-11
T202311701
Ooo

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After rising at a 9.1% year-over-year pace in June, the consumer price index only grew 8.5% in July. On a month-over-month basis, prices were flat from June to July.A large part of that had to do with an 8% decline in gasoline prices—which make up more than 5% of the CPI basket—but even stripping out volatile energy and food prices, the growth in consumer prices slowed notably.From June to July, core consumer prices increased by 0.31%, the slowest month-over-month growth since September 2021. On a year-over-year basis, the core CPI was up by 5.9%, equal to the rate seen in June and down from its peak reading of 6.5% in March.With inflation finally showing signs of cooling, SPY advanced 2% on Wednesday, bringing its gains since the mid-June lows to nearly 15%. The ETF is now only down 12% from its all-time highs.The tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust Until the release of today’s CPI data, many had puzzled over the rally in stocks from their lows. How could stocks be going up in the face of multidecade highs in inflation and aggressive interest rate hikes from the Fed?It’s because the market was correctly foreseeing a notable deceleration in inflation brought on by declining commodity prices and improving supply chains.Breathing RoomThis better-than-expected CPI data also gives the Federal Reserve breathing room to slow the pace of its rate hikes. Fed funds futures are implying that the U.S. central bank will most likely hike rates by only 50 basis points at its September meeting, down from the 75 basis point hikes it made at the last two meetings.Sensing smaller rate hikes, the two-year Treasury bond yield dropped by 10 basis points to 3.17% on Wednesday. The 10-year Treasury bond yield was flat at around 2.77%, while the 30-year yield rose by 5 basis points to 3.04%.This steepening of the yield curve reflects an expectation of smaller Fed rate hikes and diminishing risks that the Fed will overtighten, pushing the economy into a recession.The iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF Like stock ETFs, bond ETFs had rallied significantly from their June lows leading up to this CPI reading. 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