Markets abhor uncertainty. The escalating tensions between the US and Iran, seemingly on the brink of conflict, have heightened market sensitivity. Hong Kong stocks opened lower today and closed down 1.11%. The US response to Iran's proposal outlined five key conditions, which appear largely unacceptable to Iran. US President Trump warned Iran again on the 17th, stating "the clock is ticking" and threatening "much more severe strikes" if a better deal is not presented. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reportedly held a half-hour call with President Trump on May 17, primarily discussing the possibility of resuming military strikes against Iran, with speculation of a potential joint US-Israel air campaign. Iran remains defiant, having asserted control over the Strait of Hormuz for toll collection and, according to CNN, is now signaling plans to charge passage fees for undersea cables transiting the strait, a claim confirmed by an Iranian military spokesperson. While collecting such fees may be impractical, the capability to disrupt the cables serves as a new bargaining chip. Separately, the UAE strongly condemned an attack on a generator at the Barakah nuclear power plant, with no claim of responsibility, and Yemen's Houthi rebels claimed to have shot down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone. This geopolitical turmoil has intensified a global bond market sell-off. US Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the 30-year yield hitting a near three-year high. Japan's 10-year government bond yield surged 10 basis points in a single day, reaching its highest level since 1996. Oil prices climbed again, boosting traditional energy stocks like China Coal Energy (01898), which rose over 3%. Concerns persist about potential risk spillover from countries struggling under pressure. Domestically, the situation appears more stable. Russian President Putin is scheduled for a state visit to China from May 19-20. Kremlin spokesperson Peskov stated the visit will cover all aspects of bilateral relations and international affairs. The market is particularly focused on whether economic and trade cooperation can be significantly enhanced. With Russia facing prolonged conflict and severe Western sanctions, sustaining its efforts depends heavily on the economy. Complementary strengths and broader cooperation align with mutual interests. Market momentum still relies on technology. According to the Shanghai Stock Exchange website, ChangXin Technology has completed its financial report updates and refiled its STAR Market IPO prospectus, with its review status reverting to "accepted." The market is enthusiastic, primarily due to its impressive financials: Q1 revenue reached 50.8 billion yuan, up 719.13% year-over-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 24.762 billion yuan, a significant turnaround from a loss of 1.559 billion yuan in the same period last year. The company forecasts H1 2026 net profit between 50 and 57 billion yuan. GigaDevice (03986), a direct 1.8% shareholder (ChangXin's 10th largest) whose chairman Zhu Yiming also chairs ChangXin, is deeply linked. ChangXin serves as its exclusive DRAM foundry, with projected 2026 DRAM procurement from ChangXin reaching 5.711 billion yuan, a roughly 383% increase from 1.182 billion yuan in 2025. Benefiting from this strong association, its shares rose over 8% today. On May 16, VGT (02476) became eligible for Southbound Stock Connect trading as its H股 price stabilization period ended and its A股 listing surpassed 10 days. Southbound capital can now directly purchase its shares, leading to amplified turnover of 2.65 billion HKD and a gain of over 8% today. The three major telecom operators, quiet for some time, are finally capitalizing on the AI dividend. The official launch of Token收费 opens a new revenue stream. On May 17, CHINA TELECOM (00728) officially launched a nationwide trial commercial Token套餐. For B端: monthly fees are 39.9 yuan, 159.9 yuan, and 299.9 yuan, corresponding to Token allowances of 15 million, 70 million, and 150 million per month. For C端: monthly fees are 9.9 yuan, 29.9 yuan, and 49.9 yuan, with Token allowances of 10 million, 40 million, and 80 million per month. Optional broadband uplink acceleration and security protection packages are also available. Its shares rose over 6% today. ZTE (00763) Shanghai branch launched a fully domestic "national chip, national module, national cloud" security base, offering diversified computing power services, multi-tier Token products, and integrated packages, gaining nearly 4% today. Shanghai Mobile introduced a Token通用服务: 1 yuan for 400,000 Tokens. China Mobile (00941) saw the smallest gain today, having risen more previously. Token monetization is expected to accelerate IDC business, directly boosting demand for optical fiber. According to CRU data cited by multiple industry publications, 2025 data center fiber demand grew approximately 76% year-over-year, and is projected to account for 30% of global total fiber demand by 2027, up from less than 5% in 2024. Meanwhile, Rebio Group estimates North American fiber demand will grow 22%-25% this year, while supply growth is only 12%-19%. Data Center Dynamics reports lead times for bulk buyers have extended to 20 weeks, and up to a year for small-batch buyers. HELENS (09869) rose nearly 8%. With global gas turbine supply falling short of demand, optimism surrounds the accelerated overseas expansion of leading domestic gas turbine industry chains. Shanghai Electric (02727) stated on the SSE Roadshow Center that it has signed exclusive sales agreements with Ansaldo for markets in Southeast Asia, Oceania, and South America. The company forecasts overseas燃气轮机 bidding volume will exceed 100GW over the next fifteen years. Its shares rose nearly 8% today. Tron founder Justin Sun publicly stated that general AI development is nearing its end, and the next decade's super trend lies not in the virtual world but in real-world applications—"Physical AI will become the most valuable super trend." The core value of Physical AI lies in extending AI capabilities from the virtual to the real world, truly creating productivity. This will inevitably generate massive data demand, making high-confidence physical data a core production factor. 51World (06651)有望通过 its simulation and synthetic data platform to become a physical AI data generation hub, surging over 42% today. On May 18, industrial robot company Yifei Technology (06871) officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Main Board, becoming the "first全品类轻工业 robot stock" on the HKEX. The company launched its "Hongjun" humanoid robot product, targeting non-standard industrial-grade operation scenarios, prioritizing entry into细分工业 scenes like precision assembly, flexible handling, and hazardous workstation replacement, which allows for higher valuation tolerance and premium. Its IPO was highly sought-after, with the public offering portion超购约 14,855 times, freezing approximately 564.3 billion HKD, surpassing the previous record of 11,464 times set by Golden Leaf International Group in 2025 to become the new HKEX "king of oversubscription." It closed at HKD 53.75, up 76% from the HKD 30.5发行价, yielding substantial profits for subscribers. This listing boosted related robotics concept stocks. Lens Technology (06613), mentioned prominently last Friday, surged over 7%; Zhaowei机电 (02692) gained over 5%; Ubtech (09880) rose over 2%.
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