Global Capital Market Review: This week (November 21–28, 2025), ADP data showed that private businesses cut an average of 13,500 jobs per week over the past four weeks, up from 2,500 job losses in the previous update. The accelerating layoffs indicate a softening labor market, boosting expectations for a Fed rate cut. The probability of a 25-basis-point cut in December surged to 86.40%, up from 71.00% last week. The U.S. dollar index fell below 100, re-entering a weak phase, while most equity markets gained. 1) Fixed income: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 4 basis points to 4.02%, and the dollar index declined 0.71% to 99.4. 2) Equities: Chinese A-shares rose across the board, with the ChiNext Index leading gains. Argentina’s stock market outperformed globally, while developed markets outpaced emerging markets. 3) Commodities: COMEX gold surged 4.77%, while crude oil dipped 0.30%.
Global Fund Flows: As of November 26, 2025, both domestic and foreign capital significantly flowed into Chinese equities. Overseas active funds saw inflows of $36 million, while passive funds attracted $2.221 billion. Foreign investors injected $2.257 billion, and domestic capital added $3.041 billion. Globally, money market funds saw inflows, with emerging markets attracting more than developed markets. U.S. fixed-income funds drew $14.5 billion, while Japanese equities faced outflows of $4.34 billion. Sector-wise, U.S. healthcare, tech, and industrials saw heavy inflows, while financials lagged. In China, tech stocks led inflows, whereas real estate, energy, and communications saw outflows.
Global Asset Valuation Metrics: As of November 28, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index’s P/E ratio ranked third after the S&P 500 and France’s CAC 40, at the 84.2th percentile over the past decade. However, absolute valuations for Chinese indices (Shanghai Composite, CSI 300, Hang Seng H-shares) remain well below U.S. stocks. Brazil’s Bovespa, CSI 300, and Shanghai Composite still offer high ERP (equity risk premium), suggesting attractive allocation value. Risk-adjusted returns: The S&P 500’s percentile rose from 39% to 44%, Nasdaq’s from 35% to 43%, and CSI 300’s from 83% to 88%. GSCI precious metals maintained a 100th percentile.
Market Sentiment Indicators: U.S. stocks: The S&P 500 closed at 6,849.09, above its 20-day moving average, with implied volatility declining. The put/call ratio dipped to 1.06 (from 1.10 on November 20), signaling improved optimism. Chinese stocks: CSI 300 December call options below 4,950 saw reduced positions, reflecting caution. Implied volatility fell sharply, indicating subdued momentum expectations.
Economic Data Highlights: U.S.: October manufacturing PMI weakened to 48.7, existing home sales declined, and inflation expectations eased, signaling cooling growth. China: October investment and industrial profits softened, but CPI/PPI improved, reinforcing recovery signals. Fed rate cut odds: December’s 25-bp cut probability rose to 86.40% (from 71.00%); January 2026 odds climbed to 90.00% (from 80.00%). Key upcoming data: U.S. November PMI, October PCE, and Q3 GDP.
Risks: Short-term asset volatility may not reflect long-term trends; potential deep recessions in Europe/U.S.; unexpected U.S. policy shifts under Trump’s administration.
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