According to Woofun AI, the core reason behind Bitcoin's weak price action in October has been clearly identified as ETF fund outflows and weakening corporate purchasing activity. Enzo, an analyst at Galaxy Research (GLXY.US), pointed out that although numerous macro-level variables exist, the imbalance in supply and demand structure is the key factor suppressing prices, and this judgment provides a clear logical anchor for understanding the current market stalemate.
The interplay of macroeconomic background and technological progress has not directly translated into upward momentum for the coin's price. Google has once again achieved a substantive breakthrough in quantum computer research and development, and the technical bottleneck known as the "20-year wall" is being gradually dismantled, with error rates in key processes having been dramatically reduced to one-fortieth of their previous level. At the same time, Claude AI has surpassed traditional techniques in the field of quantum computer design, and its improved computational efficiency has even touched the boundary of potential capability for cracking cryptocurrency passwords. However, these technological positives have not effectively boosted market sentiment. Although Bitcoin's CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) have risen somewhat, suggesting that inflationary pressure persists, its price is still struggling to hold around $80,000. Market focus is highly concentrated on the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) interest rate decisions, and any policy movement can trigger violent fluctuations. This analytical perspective originates from an in-depth interpretation published by a bitbank analyst at 08:45 on October 19, 2026, revealing the enormous contrast between technological optimism and real-world price pressure.
Delving deeper into supply and demand fundamentals, the "institutional absorption versus early holder selling" indicator proposed by Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Research (GLXY.US), on the X platform reveals a deeper contradiction. This indicator calculates monthly supply and demand conditions precisely by tallying ETF net inflows and net purchases by companies holding Bitcoin for more than 5 years, then deducting long-dormant Bitcoin stockpiles. Among these, "early holders" specifically refers to the group that has held the asset since Bitcoin's inception, and the largest holding companies are also included in the calculation. Data shows that cumulative net selling so far this year has reached 127,319 coins, while ETF net inflows year-to-date amount to only $355 million. This enormous difference in magnitude indicates that although institutional capital continues to flow in, its absorption capacity can no longer fully cover the selling pressure from early holders, and the supply-demand balance has clearly tilted toward sellers.
According to data compiled by Woofun AI, looking at the trajectory of monthly supply and demand evolution, the market has gone through a complete cycle from improvement to renewed deterioration. In April, due to substantial Bitcoin purchases by some companies, supply and demand conditions briefly improved, with that month's net figure reaching positive 60,000 coins. However, the situation took a sharp turn for the worse starting in May, and in June about 70,000 Bitcoins flowed out of ETFs, which combined with concentrated selling by early holders pushed net selling volume up to approximately 100,000 coins. In July, institutional purchasing activity nearly came to a complete halt, and market liquidity further dried up. In August and September, although some capital flowed back into ETFs, turning the net figure into a slight positive, this incremental amount was still insufficient to make up for the massive selling gap accumulated earlier. Notably, in October Bitcoin once again fell into negative territory, with ETFs experiencing net fund outflows and corporate purchases remaining limited, unable to absorb early holders' selling, with net selling volume still at a negative level of approximately 20,000 coins. On the price front, Bitcoin briefly rebounded to nearly $86,000 in early October before quickly falling back to just above $80,000, reflecting an extreme lack of bullish strength.
Developments among leading companies further confirm cautious market sentiment. Strategy (MSTR.US), as one of the largest Bitcoin holders, purchased 250 Bitcoins between October 5 and 11, marking its fourth consecutive week of accumulation, bringing its total holdings to 848,250 coins. In addition, the company repurchased $192.4 million worth of STRC (STRC.US) preferred stock, demonstrating a proactive stance in balance sheet management. However, even as Strategy (MSTR.US) continues to add to its position, data as of October 18 shows that Bitcoin's net selling volume so far this year remains at negative 127,319 coins. This means that the absorption by all companies including Strategy (MSTR.US), plus ETF inflows, still cannot offset the amount of Bitcoin held for more than 5 years that early holders have sold off. Thorn added in a follow-up post that although ETF net inflows year-to-date remain positive at $355 million and Bitcoin is barely holding in positive territory, this slim advantage is no longer enough to support further price increases.
Other industry news and technological developments also reflect diverse market concerns from the sidelines. Crypto Weekly News (10/16) summarized Bitcoin seized in the UK, losses related to entertainment assets, and the latest movements of Bitcoin that has been dormant for over 6 years, hinting that long-dormant assets may face the risk of reactivation. ANAP Holdings announced at 13:00 on 10/16 that it would begin recruiting sponsors for the [BITCOIN JAPAN 2026] event, and at 14:00 on 10/13 it released detailed event arrangements, including dance competitions and comedy performances, in an attempt to enhance brand influence through cultural penetration. WEA Japan participated in the TOKEN2049 exhibition at 18:00 on 10/13, introducing its achievements in stablecoin payment applications and seeking international cooperation. Hashed Open Research released a comparative report at 15:00 on 10/13 on digital asset policies in the United States, European Union, Japan, China, and South Korea, providing data support for regulatory arbitrage. Canton Foundation brought together participants from the finance and digital asset industries at the "Canton Forum Singapore" event at 17:00 on 10/6. XRPL Korea held Asia's largest Ripple coin conference, "XRP Seoul 2026," at 16:40 on 10/6, with 5,000 attendees, and the conference successfully concluded on the 3rd. Currently popular content covers how to buy assets such as USDC, JPYC, Ethereum, Ripple, and HYPE, and exchange recommendations such as Coincheck and SBI VC Trade are also frequently mentioned. This article contains corporate sponsored advertising and affiliate marketing content, and CoinPost is not responsible for the quality or performance of the published content or related products, and readers must bear their own risks. For more Hong Kong stock heavyweight news, download the Zhitong Finance app. For more Hong Kong stock and overseas wealth management news, please visit www.zhitongcaijing.com (search for "Zhitong Finance"); to join the Zhitong Hong Kong stock investment group, please add Zhitong customer service WeChat (ztcjkf).
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