China Galaxy Securities has released a research report stating that in recent years, the scheduling effect and Matthew effect in the film market have become increasingly pronounced. Based on the current lineup for the Chinese New Year holiday period and popularity metrics from third-party platforms, audiences continue to show high acceptance and willingness to view high-quality films. The 2026 Spring Festival holiday spans nine days, which is expected to provide a more extended timeframe for box office revenue generation. The performance of films during this period warrants close attention.
Furthermore, ByteDance's recent initiation of internal testing for its video model, Seedance2.0, which demonstrates significantly enhanced video generation capabilities, highlights the potential for long-term empowerment of the film and cinema industry by AI video tools. The report recommends focusing on: 1) content producers invested in key films scheduled for the holiday period; 2) leading cinema chains; and 3) companies with strong capabilities in film production, promotion, and distribution.
Event: Pre-sales for the 2026 Spring Festival film period began on February 9th. As of 3:00 PM on February 10th, pre-sales for new films during this period had already surpassed 100 million yuan. The main views of China Galaxy Securities are as follows:
The number of films scheduled for release on the first day of the Lunar New Year in 2026 is six, slightly below the average of recent years. However, several films have garnered significant attention, with four of the six scheduled titles having pre-sales exceeding ten million yuan each. According to Dengta Professional data, as of 3:00 PM on February 10th, the cumulative pre-sale box office (including limited previews) for the 2026 Spring Festival period reached 100 million yuan. Specifically, "Pegasus 3," "Awakening Silence," and "Blades of the Guardians: Desert Storm" ranked in the top three for pre-sales, with current figures of 34.16 million yuan, 25.60 million yuan, and 18.55 million yuan, respectively. On the Taopiaopiao platform, the number of users expressing interest in viewing these films was 730,000, 930,000, and 610,000, respectively.
The 2026 Spring Festival film lineup consists entirely of domestic productions, including several titles based on established domestic IPs: the sequel "Pegasus 3," the adaptation of the popular comic "Blades of the Guardians: Desert Storm," the latest installment in the "Boonie Bears" series, and "Awakening Silence," which heavily promotes director Zhang Yimou's personal brand during its marketing. The report suggests that pre-sales performance is closely linked to strong audience recognition of these IPs. The continuous development of sequels based on high-value IPs is expected to encourage the emergence of more excellent new IPs. Under the influence of the "Self-pleasure Economy" trend among Gen Z, new consumer products like IPs and related merchandise are experiencing vigorous growth, which is poised to benefit the entire licensing, derivative, and development ecosystem for film IP. The brand effect of domestic film IPs is already becoming apparent.
A review of the 2025 film and cinema market indicates that the Spring Festival period often sets the tone for the entire year, making the performance of films during this window crucial. The total annual box office for 2025 reached 51.8 billion yuan, a 22% year-on-year increase, primarily driven by contributions from the Spring Festival releases. The phenomenal animated film "Ne Zha 2" started the year strongly, breaking Chinese film box office records with a February take of 12.3 billion yuan. Its long-tail effect persisted through March to May, generating 1.16 billion yuan, 230 million yuan, and 110 million yuan in those respective months. However, subsequently released films failed to sustain this market momentum, leading to a period of weaker growth later in the year. The market saw a year-on-year increase in November and December, bolstered by the release of imported films like "Zootopia 2" and "Avatar 3."
The report concludes that the Spring Festival period, as the first major film window of the year, typically establishes the baseline for annual box office performance. Therefore, the subsequent performance of films released during this period should be monitored closely.
Risk factors include potential changes in policy and regulatory environments, risks associated with content review and approval processes, macroeconomic fluctuations, uncertainties regarding the practical application and adoption of AIGC technologies, and general market competition.
Comments