Despite recent market declines, Wall Street's biggest Bitcoin bulls are adjusting their short-term forecasts while maintaining their long-term conviction. Longtime crypto advocate Standard Chartered PLC has halved its Bitcoin price projection due to weakened corporate treasury demand and sluggish ETF inflows. The bank now expects the original cryptocurrency to climb to $150,000 by end-2026, down from its previous $300,000 forecast, while pushing back its long-term $500,000 target from 2028 to 2030.
Bernstein analysts similarly predict Bitcoin will reach $150,000 by next year-end and approach $200,000 by 2027. Although recent declines led them to retract their earlier peak forecast of $200,000 for this year, they maintain that Bitcoin has broken free from its historic four-year cycle, signaling a more sustained growth trajectory.
While still bullish, these downward revisions mark a notable shift in market sentiment. Crypto supporters are adapting to a harsher environment. Bitcoin has fallen nearly 30% from its October peak above $126,000, with institutional buying reversing. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $60 million in net outflows on Monday.
Bullish sentiment resurfaced Tuesday as Bitcoin climbed to a three-week high, briefly rising 3.5% above $94,400. Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, noted that corporate treasuries (so-called "DATs") no longer have the valuation or momentum to sustain purchases. "We believe DAT-driven Bitcoin buying is complete, while ETF inflows will recover intermittently," he wrote, expecting consolidation rather than a full sell-off.
With this demand pillar gone, ETF flows remain the sole anchor—but they appear to be losing steam. BlackRock’s IBIT fund faced $2.3 billion in redemptions last month, its largest monthly outflow this year and only its second ever. Though just 3% of total assets, the retreat raises concerns over whether long-term holders are wavering, given Bitcoin’s history of strong rebounds after major pullbacks.
Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, and Sanskar Chindalia noted that despite Bitcoin’s nearly one-third drop, net outflows from over a dozen spot Bitcoin ETFs account for less than 5% of estimated total assets. Bitcoin is now in an "extended bull cycle," they argue, with sticky institutional buying offsetting retail panic selling.
Per Bernstein’s November analysis, retail investors hold about three-quarters of spot Bitcoin ETF assets, while institutional ownership rose from 20% at end-2024 to 28%. Longer-term, analysts project Bitcoin could hit $1 million by 2033.
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