Analysis of the latest gold market trends:
On July 7th, a fundamental analysis of gold: On Tuesday during the early Asian trading session, spot gold was trading around $4,164 per ounce. The price of gold saw limited gains, weighed down by a stronger US dollar. Gold closed down 0.24% on Monday, with spot gold reported at $41,634.75 per ounce, retreating from the two-week high reached earlier, primarily dragged down by a firmer dollar, which made gold more expensive for overseas buyers. However, a significant slowdown in US job growth in June and downward revisions to the previous two months' data have prompted markets to lower expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike, thereby limiting gold's decline. Investors are currently awaiting the release of the minutes from the Fed's last meeting on Wednesday. Market analyst Jim Wyckoff from the American Gold Exchange stated that traders will scrutinize the minutes for more clues on the direction of monetary policy, and any unexpected signals could trigger market volatility.
Technical Analysis for Gold: From a technical structure perspective, gold faced resistance and retreated after rallying to the $4,200 level on Monday, with concentrated profit-taking at highs ending the recent strong rebound, leading to a short-term phase of correction and consolidation. The daily candle closed as a bullish candle with a long upper shadow. The gold price remains above the 5-day moving average, but support from the 10-day moving average is beginning to weaken. The Bollinger Bands are contracting and flattening, indicating a slowdown in the uptrend momentum. The MACD red bars are noticeably shortening, showing continued weakening of bullish momentum. The RSI has retreated from overbought levels to the neutral 48 zone, indicating insufficient bullish strength and diminished upward momentum. On the 4-hour chart, after touching the upper Bollinger Band, the price faced pressure and moved lower, disrupting the short-term bullish structure. The price is moving towards the middle Bollinger Band, with each minor rally accompanied by selling pressure. The hourly MACD has formed a bearish crossover, providing a clear signal for a short-term pullback. The short-term outlook is primarily sideways to weak. Immediate resistance is found between $4,190 and $4,200, with a stronger mid-term resistance level at $4,260. Only a firm break and hold above $4,200 would allow the rebound to continue. Immediate support lies at $4,140, with a key support level at $4,115. A break below this level would completely reverse the current rebound trend. A slight recovery in the US dollar and Treasury yields is putting pressure on gold prices, coupled with the need for a correction after the previous significant gains. It is not advisable to chase the long side in the short term. Wait for a pullback to find support and stabilize before participating with light positions. During the Asian and European sessions, a range-trading strategy between $4,120 and $4,200 (buying low and selling high) can be considered. Overall, for today's short-term gold trading, the strategy is suggested to focus on buying on dips, supplemented by selling on rallies. Key resistance to watch on the upside is in the $4,200-$4,230 range, while key support to watch on the downside is in the $4,120-$4,100 range.
Analysis of the latest crude oil market trends:
Fundamental analysis for crude oil: On Tuesday (Beijing time, July 7th) during the early Asian trading session, oil prices fell on Monday, pressured by a significant cut in Saudi Arabia's official selling prices and the further resumption of crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices retreated to levels seen before the Iran war outbreak. Brent crude settled at $71.95 per barrel, and US crude settled at $68.60 per barrel, both down approximately 0.2%. The decline was mainly due to Saudi Arabia's substantial cut in its official selling price—setting the August price for its flagship Arab Light crude to Asia at a discount of $1.50 per barrel to the Oman/Dubai average, the largest monthly cut on record since 2003. Concurrently, OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to increase its production target by another 188,000 barrels per day starting in August (following similar increases implemented in June and July). Furthermore, the further resumption of crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz, with previously stranded tankers successfully leaving the Gulf region leading to an increase in seaborne crude volumes, continued to pressure oil prices.
Technical Analysis for Crude Oil: From a daily chart perspective, the moving average system is gradually diverging downwards, indicating the medium-term objective trend direction is entering a downtrend. Crude oil prices have broken below the lower boundary support of a more than three-month range, with bearish momentum strengthening. It is expected that the medium-term crude oil trend will primarily follow a downward rhythm. On the short-term (1-hour) chart, crude oil movements are characterized by repetitive, choppy trading. In early trading, oil prices declined, retesting the previous low around the $67 price level. Bearish momentum holds a slight advantage. It is anticipated that within the day, after testing lower, crude oil prices are more likely to find support and rebound. Overall, for today's crude oil trading, the strategy is suggested to focus on buying on dips, supplemented by selling on rallies. Key resistance to watch on the upside is in the $70.5-$71.5 range, while key support to watch on the downside is in the $67.0-$66.0 range.
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