Since the beginning of September, battery-grade lithium carbonate prices have experienced a periodic pullback. Data from business society indicates that as of September 14, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate stood at 134,000 yuan per ton, a daily decline of 0.74%. At the start of September, the price was 156,000 yuan per ton. In the futures market, the main contract for lithium carbonate, 2701, opened at 132,400 yuan per ton on September 15 and closed at 129,120 yuan per ton, representing a 3.32% drop from the previous settlement price.
During the traditional "Golden September, Silver October" peak consumption season for the lithium battery industry, why are battery-grade lithium carbonate prices experiencing a short-term correction? Liu Youhua, research director at Shenzhen Paipaiwang Fund Sales Co., Ltd., explained that the short-term retreat in battery-grade lithium carbonate prices is primarily influenced by three factors. "First, the adjustment of inventory measurement standards has reshaped market expectations. Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network expanded its inventory statistical calibre to include traders and cell manufacturers, converting hidden inventory into visible supply. This disrupted the previous trading logic of 'continuous destocking and tight spot supply,' triggering a reappraisal of market expectations. Second, peak season demand has fallen short of expectations, and downstream procurement has been cautious. Although the 'Golden September' peak season has arrived, intense competition in the domestic new energy vehicle market has transmitted the profit pressure from automakers' price cuts upstream. Third, battery manufacturers remain cautious about procuring high-priced raw materials, adhering to demand-based purchasing and maintaining low inventory operations without the motivation to build stockpiles."
Notably, on September 3, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network issued a notice regarding a correction to its weekly lithium carbonate inventory data system. Starting September 4, it adopted a new statistical calibre that expanded samples to include traders, cell manufacturers, and other downstream segments, supplementing the original data from upstream smelters and cathode material producers. It also added production sources such as lithium extraction from bauxite residue, tungsten ore associated lithium, and electrolytic aluminium waste residue. Following the adjustment, weekly inventory was revised upward in one go to 169,300 tons, a net increase of approximately 90,000 to 100,000 tons compared to the previous calibre of just over 70,000 tons. Cinda Futures suggested that the substantial upward revision in inventory data triggered bearish sentiment, leading to a significant decline in the futures market.
It is worth noting that despite the short-term correction in battery-grade lithium carbonate prices, downstream demand has officially entered the traditional peak season, acting as a core support for lithium prices. Analysis from Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network suggests that from a terminal perspective, the new energy vehicle market, after falling in July, showed a month-on-month recovery in August. With September ushering in the traditional peak season, coupled with the concentrated delivery of new models, power battery demand is expected to continue improving. End-user demand is further transmitting to battery and cathode segments. In August, domestic cell production continued to rise, with lithium iron phosphate power cells contributing the main increment. On the cathode front, lithium iron phosphate output grew 7.8% month-on-month in August and is expected to further increase to over 610,000 tons in September. This implies that the current strength of lithium iron phosphate is not solely driven by the automotive sector; rather, it results from the combined effect of power market seasonal recovery and sustained high prosperity in energy storage, with the latter contributing stronger marginal growth. According to calculations by Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, even if battery-grade lithium carbonate supply rapidly grows to 157,900 tons in September, demand is still expected to rise to 177,400 tons, leaving a supply-demand gap of approximately 19,600 tons.
He Li, general manager of Beijing Zhizhi Shangshan Investment Management Co., Ltd., stated that the logic of maintaining a tight supply-demand balance for battery-grade lithium carbonate this year remains unchanged. "Overall, whether the core supply-demand relationship can remain tightly balanced ultimately depends on the growth rate of energy storage demand. Whether lithium carbonate prices return to marginal cost also depends on demand growth expectations rather than supply expectations."
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