The aviation industry is ramping up capacity during what were once considered shoulder seasons, with airlines even adding routes during the traditionally slow winter months.
A growing number of travelers are opting for trips during periods like autumn, drawn by milder temperatures and more affordable fares.
With the industry's full-year profit expected to be slashed by $100 billion due to soaring fuel prices, adapting to this new pattern of traveler demand is becoming critically important.
Airline Strategy
European vacation routes that once operated only from spring to summer are now launching while snow is still on the ground in the US and continuing until the leaves fall, with some running year-round, completely breaking the traditional late-spring-to-late-summer travel cycle.
For instance, American Airlines began its New York to Edinburgh, Scotland route this past March; United Airlines is operating its Newark, New Jersey to Palermo, Sicily route through December; and Delta Air Lines is flying its Minneapolis to Rome route into January, significantly extending its operational period compared to previous years.
The Financial Imperative
Data from the International Air Transport Association indicates that the surge in jet fuel prices this year is expected to wipe out $100 billion in industry profits. Consequently, capitalizing on this new trend of attracting high-spending travelers has become a top priority for the entire sector.
While airlines have previously cut marginally profitable or loss-making routes, investors remain optimistic about the industry's ability to manage fuel cost pressures. Airline executives have noted that robust travel demand has helped offset some of these costs, though not entirely.
Shares of leading US carriers Delta and United Airlines have hit record highs in recent weeks, while American Airlines stock reached an 18-month peak. Major airlines will report second-quarter earnings and provide third-quarter guidance this month, with Delta set to release its results first this Friday.
Evolving Seasonal Dynamics
Industry leaders state that the clear historical division between peak and off-peak international travel seasons is being upended by new travel patterns, forcing a re-evaluation of operational plans used for decades.
Delta President Peter Carter remarked, "Traffic was once heavily polarized between peak and off-peak. Now, most European destinations offer a great experience year-round, which is why demand for travel to Europe remains consistently high."
This shift in passenger flows is redefining airlines' most profitable periods.
United Airlines Senior Vice President of Network Planning, Patrick Quayle, noted last month, "We're observing a clear trend—the lines between seasons are blurring. Traditional shoulder seasons are increasingly merging with peak periods, a phenomenon I call 'the continuous expansion of the peak season boundary.'"
Airlines are striving to extend the operational period of their routes to boost revenue and profitability.
International flights to Europe often feature more premium cabins with lie-flat business seats compared to domestic short-haul aircraft, and carriers plan to further expand these high-end offerings. Round-trip business class fares on some transatlantic routes can reach $10,000, roughly double the price of similar cabins on US domestic flights.
Pricing and Operational Adjustments
While average ticket prices are higher this year as airlines pass on costs, the pace of increase is showing signs of moderation, with fares likely to decline further after the peak summer travel period in July.
Data from the travel search platform Kayak shows that the price for a round-trip ticket from the US to Athens, Greece on June 22 was $988. While this is above last year's $810, it has fallen significantly from a peak of $1,350 two months prior.
Delta Vice President of International Network Planning, Jeff Arinder, explained that the rise in shoulder and off-peak travel is forcing airlines to rethink aircraft maintenance and crew scheduling.
He revealed, "In the past, we would never take a plane out of service for maintenance in the summer—it was our most profitable time. Now, we schedule more maintenance in the summer to keep aircraft available for the fall season."
Delta is actively working to smooth out the traditional peaks and troughs in passenger traffic throughout the year.
Drivers of the Shift
The deadly heatwaves in Europe this summer are a primary catalyst for travelers avoiding the traditional peak summer months.
Record-breaking extreme heat hit many European countries in late June, with low air conditioning penetration exacerbating discomfort for residents and tourists alike. Cities from Warsaw to Rome set up water mist cooling stations; Paris postponed its Pride parade and briefly banned public alcohol consumption.
Residents in popular European cities like Barcelona and Venice continue to protest against overtourism, both in summer and year-round, as total visitor numbers to Europe repeatedly hit new highs.
However, avoiding crowds and heat is not the only reason for the shift.
The proliferation of flexible work arrangements among younger demographics, and families with children finding it easier to travel outside the spring and summer school holidays, are contributing factors. The baby boomer generation, with ample savings and free time, also has more options for off-peak travel.
Arinder noted, "Delta's core customer base tends to be older and possesses greater spending power."
Focus on Sicily's Off-Season
United Airlines is a pioneer in tapping the off-season travel market.
Its Newark to Palermo, Sicily route, operated with a Boeing 767, will run through December 16th this year, whereas it previously ended in September.
Sicily has long been marketed as a summer destination, with coastal temperatures often exceeding 32 degrees Celsius in July and little rain. In December, highs are around 15 degrees with more frequent rainfall.
United is betting that with lower hotel prices and fewer crowds at major attractions, its three-weekly flights will remain full even without the summer sunshine.
Quayle expressed confidence, stating, "This isn't a risky experiment; it's sound business."
Many coastal hotels in Sicily close for the winter, such as the Four Seasons San Domenico Palace in Taormina, featured in the second season of HBO's "The White Lotus," which shuts from mid-November until early spring.
However, General Manager Imelda Shilaku reported that over the past four years, bookings from US travelers have seen significant growth in March, April, October, and November.
She explained via email, "High-net-worth travelers increasingly seek authentic cultural experiences, and Sicily's shoulder seasons are better suited for this. Think in-depth guided tours of the Baroque city of Noto or nighttime hikes on Mount Etna. The hotel will reopen on March 1st next year."
Delta is also expanding its off-season service to Sicily, operating its New York JFK to Catania route until January 3rd, compared to last year's end date of October 24th, with plans to resume on March 8th next year. The route, which launched in May 2025, began earlier this year on May 1st.
Industry-Wide Trend
It's not just United and Delta; US carriers across the board are deploying wide-body aircraft to ensure year-round service to Europe, covering traditional off-peak periods.
Brett Snyder, founder of the airline industry blog The Cranky Flier and travel service Cranky Concierge, analyzed, "When airlines acquire aircraft, they must consider how to utilize these expensive assets year-round. While wide-bodies flying to Europe in summer have no trouble filling seats, the industry can now extend that profitable window into the shoulder seasons."
Seattle-based Alaska Airlines, launching its first transatlantic routes this year to London, Rome, and Reykjavik, Iceland, is basing its strategy on this trend. President and CFO Shane Tackett noted the increasing flexibility in travelers' mindsets.
"Everyone wants to visit popular destinations, so the lines between seasons naturally blur. When I was a child, my parents would never have let me miss school in September for a trip. Now, many parents think, 'Let's go during the off-season, and they can catch up on schoolwork when they return.'"
American Airlines is also extending the operational period for several transatlantic routes.
Senior Vice President of Network Planning, Brian Znotins, stated, "October travel to Europe, while not matching June or July, has become a peak month for us."
However, he cautioned against unchecked winter expansion, noting that many travelers still seek specific winter destinations for skiing or sun, and traditional planning still holds value.
"To be honest, January and February are still slower. I don't want to give the impression that traffic is booming then, but the slowdown is less pronounced than it used to be."
Many travelers are opting for a compromise, traveling during shoulder periods.
Chicago finance executive Atul Mehta shared that he took his family to Portugal just before the school year started this summer, but in past winters when visiting family in Bahrain, he simply had his children miss school to accompany him.
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