Retail investors are returning to AI trades with unusual force.
Scott Rubner, Head of Equity and Derivatives Strategy at Citadel Securities, noted in a latest research report that last week retail investors net bought US$9.1 billion of US stocks through the firm's platform, setting the largest weekly net buying record in nearly 15 years, with funds highly concentrated in AI-related stocks and ETFs.
This return of capital drove both the Nasdaq 100 Index and the S&P 500 Index to fresh all-time highs, even though warnings about an AI bubble have never dissipated. For investors watching the tech sector, the large-scale return of retail investors is becoming an important force supporting the current rally.
Semiconductors and AI Infrastructure Became the Main Destinations of Funds
The structure of last week's retail buying was highly concentrated. According to Scott Rubner, retail investors net bought about US$2.6 billion of semiconductor stocks, the third-largest weekly buying scale in the past year, and October is on track to become the month with the largest net buying of chip stocks on the platform. At the same time, AI infrastructure-related stocks also recorded about US$2.4 billion in net buying.
It is worth noting that this influx of funds occurred against the backdrop of pressure on chip stocks and lingering doubts in the market about the sustainability of the AI boom, showing that retail investors' conviction in the AI main line has not wavered due to short-term volatility.
Stronger Directional Bets, Rather Than Expansion in Trading Volume
Rubner emphasized in the research report that the expansion in retail buying this round mainly stemmed from "stronger directional conviction, rather than an increase in overall trading volume." Data shows that retail investors' buying volume last week exceeded selling volume by 2.7%, corresponding to the 90th percentile of weekly directional skew over the past year. At the same time, overall trading activity remained at the 42nd percentile of the past year, below the average level.
This combination means that retail investors are not broadly chasing gains, but are actively and concentratedly increasing their bets on the AI direction, with relatively clear signal significance.
Rubner's Early-Month Forecast Has Been Validated
This retail return was not sudden. Rubner accurately predicted this trend in early October, when he pointed out that after a clear cooling in September, October provided investors with a better "reloading" window, and the upcoming earnings season and corporate buyback wave would provide support for the market.
According to a previous Bloomberg report, Rubner clearly stated at the time that retail cash was "reloading" and waiting to return to US stocks. Last week's data confirmed this judgment and also kept the market highly focused on whether subsequent retail funds can continue to enter the market.
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