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Spots are limited, so act fast. Let us embark together on this journey toward sustainability. [Click to register] On October 16, international spot gold hit a bottom and staged a small rebound, dipping to around 4075 before immediately rising to around 4150 and moving sideways, and it is currently still oscillating near 4170.
On the upside, after rebounding, the 4200 level needs to be watched as resistance. If it breaks above and successfully holds above 4200, then gold may still have room for the rebound to continue. However, personally, Kaifeng is not very optimistic that gold has successfully bottomed out here. There may still be a second test of 4070 or even a possibility of breaking below that level. The current rebound is still only a technical rebound. If a large amount of capital does not enter gold afterward, the rebound will move in a hesitant and awkward manner, not as clean and direct as the previous rebound from 4000 all the way to 4700. What the bullish rebound needs to wait for is a clear signal. For this kind of rebound, our long positions should stop at an appropriate point and only look above 4180, and we will not insist on holding for so long. Those who are patient can also continue to hold and wait for the rebound to finish, and then consider adding positions on the second pullback.
However, the recommendation remains: at the 4180-4200 line, uniformly take profit and exit long positions, then re-enter on the second pullback, which can reduce holding costs. From a technical pattern perspective, it is clear that gold is still moving sideways within the 4000-4200 range and has no intention of breaking out. More aggressive traders could even consider trying short positions above 4200. The second pullback tends to move back and forth relatively quickly, just like this week's decline, which took two or three trading days to push down, and then only one trading day to pull back up, creating the illusion of a trend reversal. But when a real trend reversal comes, everyone will not have time to enter long positions. Only continuously chasing longs will not give everyone a chance to buy on a pullback. After experiencing enough market conditions, one can understand what Kaifeng is talking about. These are all just words of experience.
In terms of technical pattern, the golden cross upward move on gold's four-hour chart may gradually be approaching its end. As the moving average system becomes more tightly converged, once the price fails to effectively break through key resistance, bearish momentum will quickly gain the upper hand and dominate the market's direction. At this point, there is no need to overly obsess over short-term noise; going with the trend is the key rule for survival. However, before gold firmly holds above 4225, it is difficult to accurately define its character, and one cannot directly judge that the trend has turned stronger. The focus should be on the weekly close. The final weekly candlestick pattern will directly determine the continuity of the market's strength or weakness for the remainder of October. At present, the weekly bottom divergence signal is very obvious. Today, Friday, we will continue to watch the 4175 line above as resistance, and in the short term below, watch the 4130-35 area as support, with key focus on the 4100 threshold. If 4100 is broken today, then the market can only continue to test the 4060-4080 range. As for whether it can ultimately break below, that is a national-level strategic stronghold. If it can break below, we need to take measures. Of course, if it cannot break below, there are also ways to handle that scenario.
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