CICC released a research report stating that it has kept its profit forecast for China Res Mixc Life (01209) largely unchanged, projecting core net profit growth of 12% and 10% year-on-year for 2026-2027, reaching 4.41 billion yuan and 4.86 billion yuan respectively. The firm maintains an Outperform industry rating and a target price of HK$48, which corresponds to a 22x 2026 core P/E ratio and implies a 9% upside potential. The company's stock is currently trading at 20x 2026 core P/E and offers a 4.9% expected dividend yield for 2026.
CICC's primary views are outlined as follows:
Core net profit for 2025 slightly exceeded market expectations. The company reported its 2025 results: revenue reached 18.02 billion yuan, a 5% year-on-year increase; core net profit was 3.95 billion yuan, growing 14% year-on-year and slightly surpassing market expectations, primarily driven by an improvement in the gross profit margin of the shopping center segment. The full-year dividend payout ratio was 100% (based on core net profit, comprising 60% ordinary and 40% special dividends), corresponding to a dividend yield of 4.4%.
Shopping center performance was strong, with market share steadily expanding. Retail sales of managed shopping centers grew 23.7% year-on-year in 2025, with a same-store sales growth of 12.2% (significantly outperforming total retail sales growth), and luxury shopping centers achieved a same-store growth of 15.3%, surpassing the overall average. Operational efficiency in the shopping center segment further improved in 2025, with the gross profit margin increasing by 3.3 percentage points year-on-year to 75.9%; the net operating profit margin on the ownership side rose by 0.6 percentage points to 65.7%. The company opened 14 new shopping centers throughout the year, bringing the total number in operation to 135, with 105 projects ranking in the top three for retail sales in their local markets. Additionally, 12 new third-party projects were secured during the year, with an average gross floor area exceeding 100,000 square meters.
The property management segment demonstrated resilience, with highly effective cash flow management. Revenue in the property management segment remained stable in 2025, while gross profit increased 7% year-on-year, and the gross profit margin improved by 1.0 percentage point to 18.0%. Driven by ongoing quality and efficiency enhancements, overall development showed resilience. Throughout the year, the company secured 35.3 million square meters of new third-party project area, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase. Since the second half of 2025, the company has focused intensely on cash flow and collection management, achieving a full-year operating cash flow coverage of core net profit of 1.0x. Broad cash holdings at year-end stood at 15.8 billion yuan.
The "15th Five-Year" strategic plan is solid and determined. During the "15th Five-Year" period, the company will continue to deepen its "commercial management + property management + mega membership" business model, aiming to become a world-class urban quality life service provider while maintaining steady growth across its overall operations. Specifically: 1) The commercial management business targets securing 100 new projects during the "15th Five-Year" period, aiming for 200 operational shopping centers and 300 contracted projects by the end of the period. Same-store sales growth for shopping centers is expected to outperform total retail sales growth, with approximately 15 new openings per year, and revenue and profit targeted to achieve a compound annual growth rate exceeding 10%; 2) The property management business aims for industry-leading quality of development, with revenue targeted for double-digit compound growth; 3) The mega membership business is expected to double both revenue and profit by the end of the "15th Five-Year" period.
Risk warning: The overall consumer environment or property management operating environment may face greater-than-expected pressure.
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