This week's macroeconomic observations show that in the first eight months of this year, the operating revenue of China's industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 6.6% year-on-year, with total profits rising 15.7%. In August alone, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size slowed to 4.2%.
In the first eight months of this year, China's outbound direct investment across all industries totaled 778.47 billion yuan, down 0.6% year-on-year, or 113.39 billion US dollars, up 3.9%. Of this, non-financial outbound direct investment amounted to 595.06 billion yuan, down 14.4%. Data from the Ministry of Commerce's commerce big data showed that during the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises nationwide grew 6.1% compared with the same period of the lunar calendar last year.
On interest rates last week, long-end interbank lending rates remained stable, while the yield on China's 10-year government bond declined. On exchange rates, the US dollar index rose 0.82%, and the offshore yuan depreciated 0.41% against the US dollar.
Index performance this week
Over the past week, with a long holiday approaching, investors' willingness to trade declined and wait-and-see sentiment intensified, leading to a volatile, low-volume pullback in the market. Among broad-based indices, the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all retreated. In terms of major sectors (Shenwan Level 1), among 31 Level 1 sectors, 9 rose and 22 fell, with real estate, coal, beauty care, and pharmaceutical biology among the top gainers, while machinery equipment, power equipment, telecommunications, and nonferrous metals were among the top decliners.
Data source: Wind Information, compiled by High-Flyer Quant. Data as of 2026/09/24.
Trading volume and margin balance
In terms of trading volume, average daily turnover rose sharply compared with the previous week, climbing further from 1.81 trillion yuan to about 1.91 trillion yuan. The margin financing balance decreased by about 800 million yuan.
Data source: Wind Information, compiled by High-Flyer Quant. Data as of 2026/09/24.
IC annualized discount rate
For the full week, the CSI 500 index fell 2.25%, while the corresponding main stock index futures contract fell 2.64%, with the weekly basis widening and existing hedge contracts generating some gains. (Current-month contract - next-month contract) / spot price * 12. The discount rate has a significant impact on hedging costs: the higher the discount rate, the higher the hedging cost, which reduces the returns of hedged products; a negative discount rate brings positive returns to hedged products.
Data source: Wind Information, compiled by High-Flyer Quant. Data as of 2026/09/24.
Valuation of major indices
From a valuation perspective alone, major indices have experienced substantial gains, and all indices shown are currently at relatively high levels. Among them, the SSE 50 index and CSI 1000 index have relatively lower valuations, sitting around the 60% historical percentile range.
Data source: iFinD, compiled by High-Flyer Quant. Data as of 2026/09/24.
Relative strength of major indices
From the perspective of relative strength alone, among the four indices compared, the CSI 500 index and CSI 1000 index outperformed the Wind All A index, with relatively strong recent trends.
Data source: Wind Information, compiled by High-Flyer Quant. Data as of 2026/09/24.
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