Gold Market Trend Analysis: As of July 31, gold spot prices are trading around $4,110 per ounce in early Asian trading on Friday, primarily supported by a softer U.S. dollar and moderate inflation data. Gold prices rose on Thursday, with spot gold closing nearly 1% higher at $4,103.42 per ounce. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.82%, driven by a stronger yen and market vigilance over potential Japanese intervention in currency markets, which makes dollar-denominated gold more attractive to overseas buyers. Meanwhile, U.S. Commerce Department data showed the June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index fell 0.1% month-on-month, in line with expectations. However, TD Securities' Head of Global Commodities Strategy noted that the slowdown in inflation may be temporary, as escalating hostilities in the Middle East push oil prices higher, and markets widely expect central banks to eventually respond. This has driven gold prices to break through the $4,150 to $4,200 resistance zone.
Gold Technical Analysis: Gold initially faced resistance at $4,100 early yesterday, pulling back to test the key support level of $4,028. During the European and U.S. sessions, buyers staged a sustained rebound, pushing prices to $4,120 before encountering resistance and entering a high-level correction, ultimately closing at $4,102. This late-session rally was not driven purely by fundamentals. The core catalyst was a sharp decline in the USD/JPY pair, triggering a massive unwinding of yen carry trades. Cross-market liquidity disruptions fueled the gold rebound, marking it as a short-term pulse move rather than a trend reversal signal. Today is the last trading day of the month, coinciding with the monthly and weekly closing. The market is likely to maintain a range-bound pattern, with a strategy of buying on dips and selling on rallies. As previously discussed, gold is forming a symmetrical triangle pattern, building momentum for a directional reversal. Next week's nonfarm payrolls data will be crucial, with focus on whether it can break the current consolidation deadlock. For now, treat it as a triangle range-bound market.
On the short-term hourly chart, gold is trading in a narrow sideways range during the Asian session. The RSI indicator remains in neutral territory, not entering overbought or oversold extremes, suggesting no strong signals for a reversal or bottom fishing. The MACD indicator is moving flat above the zero line, with balanced bullish and bearish momentum, making extreme trending moves unlikely in the near term. The current price is operating within the core $4,020 to $4,120 trading range, with $4,100 serving as the intraday pivot point. Resistance levels: First resistance at $4,116-$4,120 (the turning point of the U.S. session rally), requiring a sustained break above to test the four-hour acceleration line and daily chart upper band. If resistance holds after multiple attempts, maintain a range-bound view. Last night, we clearly advised shorting in the $4,115-$4,120 zone, based on the logic of a range-bound market. Key support lies at the 30-minute lower band, which was also the launch point for the second rally, with strong support at the hourly chart lower band of $4,030. The current market favors a range-bound approach, avoiding chasing prices. Note that increased capital divergence during high-level consolidation may lead to more frequent intraday shakeouts and higher odds of false breakouts. When relying solely on technical signals, wait for confirmed breakouts before following the trend.
In summary, today's gold trading strategy should favor buying on dips and selling on rallies, with short-term focus on resistance at $4,120-$4,150 and support at $4,050-$4,020.
Crude Oil Market Trend Analysis: As of Friday, July 31, early Asian trading sees U.S. crude oil around $84 per barrel. Traders are assessing Saudi Arabia's plan to lead a multi-nation maritime defense alliance including Turkey, Pakistan, and Egypt to bolster Red Sea and surrounding waters security. Oil prices ended lower on Thursday, with Brent crude falling 1.04% to $87.19 per barrel and U.S. crude dropping 0.76% to $83.96. Despite earlier highs of $93.31 and $85.94 respectively, triggered by escalation in U.S.-Iran military conflicts, prices retreated as traders weighed that resolution of geopolitical issues could release significant supply, capping upside. The defense alliance aims to enhance Red Sea security, with the view that once geopolitical tensions ease, ample supply may suppress price rallies.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis: On the daily chart, the moving average system is turning upward, indicating a change in the medium-term downtrend. Candlesticks show consistent upward reversals, with strong bullish momentum. While a new medium-term trend has not yet formed, the downtrend has ended on a momentum basis. The medium-term outlook is expected to maintain a rebound pattern. On the 1-hour chart, crude oil's short-term rally has stalled, with a head-and-shoulders reversal pattern failing to break above the neckline and confirm. The short-term trend has re-entered a consolidation phase. Early Asian trading saw a slight pullback, with bearish momentum gradually strengthening. The intraday outlook suggests prices will likely decline to test prior lows. In summary, today's crude oil trading strategy should favor selling on rallies and buying on dips, with short-term focus on resistance at $84.5-$86.5 and support at $80.0-$78.0.
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