On October 30, 2025, Hepalink (09989) released its Q3 financial report, showing revenue of RMB 4.194 billion for the first three quarters, up 3.09% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell 29.04% to RMB 554 million. Though still declining annually, these figures marked slight sequential improvement from H1's dual drops in revenue and profit.
Post-earnings, Hepalink's Hong Kong shares saw a minor rally in early November, with five consecutive gaining sessions from November 7-13. However, the momentum failed to sustain, and the stock soon retreated into a technical downtrend, sliding from the upper Bollinger Band to the lower band within six trading days before oscillating weakly near mid-lower bands.
The current downtrend began in late July 2025 after peaking at HK$7.26 on July 21. Post-August, the stock largely moved mechanically between mid-lower Bollinger Bands, with narrowing bands indicating prolonged consolidation. Despite a brief post-earnings uptick in November that retested the upper band, the lack of volume support rendered it a "false breakout," leading to another six-day decline back to the lower band.
Notably, during this quiet period, southbound capital via Stock Connect has been accumulating Hepalink shares against the trend. Recent data shows top buyers were China Investment (Shanghai-Hong Kong Connect) and China Creation (Shenzhen-Hong Kong Connect), purchasing 586,500 and 150,500 shares respectively, lifting total Stock Connect ownership to 43.14%.
**Heparin's Cyclical Recovery in Play** As a pork-derived anticoagulant, heparin's pricing closely follows hog cycles (typically 3-4 years). The 2018-2022 supercycle—driven by African swine fever-induced supply crunch and pandemic demand—saw heparin API prices skyrocket 700% to $15,849/kg. Subsequent policy incentives triggered overcapacity, pushing hog inventories to record highs by 2022 and depressing prices.
With China's hog industry now undergoing "anti-involution" capacity cuts, markets expect hog prices to rebound to breakeven levels by mid-2026. Wind data shows heparin API export prices bottomed in H2 2024, rising 27% MoM by January 2025. This optimism has fueled Hepalink’s A-shares (002399.SZ), now up 81.6% from 2024 lows at RMB 12.04, while its H-shares trade at a 60% discount. At 1.32x P/S (vs industry's 2.71x), Hepalink’s HK-listed shares may offer value as heparin’s cyclical recovery gains traction.
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